As climate change nudges weather in the eastern Cascades in extreme and volatile directions, forest managers in the region have a lot to juggle. Hotter, drier summers are contributing to bigger and more frequent wildfires. Meanwhile, warmer winters may cause the Cascades to lose 50% of its annual snowpack over the next 70 years. Mountain snow supplies the Yakima River Basin with 75% of its water supply, making it a crucial reservoir for both nature and agriculture . Less winter snow also leads to drier and more fire-prone forests in the summer.

To encourage fire resilience, forest managers use tried-and-true tools like controlled burning and the selective felling of trees to thin out the forest. Both methods remove fuel and help return forests to historical conditions 鈥� but less is known about their impact on snowpack.

To address this knowledge gap, a team of researchers at the 天美影视传媒 and The Nature Conservancy (TNC) embarked on an ambitious, multiyear study of snowpack along Cle Elum Ridge, an area of the eastern Cascades in the headwaters of the Yakima River Basin. The group experimentally thinned the forest to varying degrees in a roughly 150-acre area. Then, they measured the amount and duration of snowpack during the winter of 2023 and compared it to a previous winter before the forest treatment.听

The results were encouraging: Forest thinning efforts increased snowpack by 30% on north-facing slopes and by 16% on south-facing slopes. Thinning aided snowpack the most where it created a patchwork of gaps in the forest rather than a more even density; gaps of 4-16 meters in diameter seemed to be the 鈥渟weet spot鈥� for snow.听

The research points toward more refined forest management practices that can optimize for both wildfire resilience and snowpack.

in Frontiers in Forest and Global Change.

鈥淎t its core, this research shows that reducing wildfire risk and protecting water resources don鈥檛 have to be competing goals,鈥� said lead author , a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Alaska who completed this work as a UW doctoral student of civil and environmental engineering. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 genuinely good news for a place facing both growing wildfire threats and increasing water vulnerability. So much of the climate conversation focuses on loss, which makes findings like this especially meaningful.鈥�

Predicting snowpack in forested areas, especially those at higher altitudes, hinges on understanding how much snow reaches the ground and how much lands in the forest canopy. Snow on the ground is more likely to stick around through the season, whereas snow in the trees may either melt or sublimate back into water vapor. In either case, it wouldn鈥檛 add to the reservoir of water that melts in the spring and summer.听聽

鈥淭rees intercept snow and so can reduce snowpack, but trees also shade snow and so can retain snowpack,鈥� said senior author , a UW professor of civil and environmental engineering. 鈥淭he dominant effect depends on winter temperatures, and the Cascade crest near Cle Elum is right on the border where the effect flips from trees decreasing snow to trees saving snow.鈥澛�

found that natural gaps in the forests of the eastern Cascades accumulated more snow. This, combined with other research, gave the team reason to hope for a positive connection between forest thinning and snowpack, though it wasn鈥檛 a sure thing. have found that open areas elsewhere in the Western U.S. saw reduced snowpack.

Thus, it was time for a direct 鈥� and complex 鈥� study of managed forests.

Researchers picked Cle Elum Ridge for the work, where TNC鈥檚 forest managers were planning thinning treatments to improve forest health and wildfire resiliency. The orientation of the ridge allowed them to compare north- and south-facing slopes 鈥� southern slopes in the region see more sunshine and less snow retention on average. From October 2021 to September 2022, the researchers worked with TNC鈥檚 forest managers and local contract loggers to remove trees on both slopes in a gradient, from no thinning to extensive. The team also set up time-lapse cameras at several strategic points to measure snow depth over time.

Then, they waited for snow to fall.

By March 2023, the area was close to its peak snowpack, and the team returned with staff and equipment from the UW (RAPID). The RAPID crew flew a specialized drone that generated a detailed 3D map of the study area using a laser-mapping technology called lidar.听

By comparing the new 3D map and timelapse imagery to lidar data captured before the forest treatment, the team was finally ready to calculate two things: the change to the forest structure, and its effect on the snowpack.

Across the whole study area, the team found that thinning helped the forest recover 12.3 acre-feet (or about four million gallons) of water in the form of snow per 100 acres on north-facing slopes, and 5.1 acre-feet (or about 1.5 million gallons) per 100 acres on south-facing slopes.听

As expected, areas where the thinning opened gaps in the canopy were most effective at restoring snow storage that had been previously lost to environmental degradation and climate change. Gaps of 4-16 meters in diameter seemed to retain the most snow, though there were few gaps larger than 16 meters to evaluate.

One surprising result: The way forest managers thin forests doesn鈥檛 reliably create gaps. Forest managers map out their reductions using the density of trunks in an area, not canopies, as their primary measurement.

鈥淚magine a group of 100 people all holding umbrellas in the rain,鈥� said co-author , director of the UW Climate Impacts Group. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e standing close enough together that their umbrellas overlap, so none of the rain hits the ground. If you remove 10 of the umbrellas randomly, you鈥檇 still have plenty of coverage overall. But, if you remove 10 umbrellas that are right next to one another, you create a gap in the umbrella 鈥榗anopy,鈥� and you get a 10% increase in the amount of rain that hits the ground.鈥�

That realization adds a nuance to the findings. It鈥檚 likely that forest thinning can benefit both wildfire and snowpack resilience at the same time, but only if managers keep canopy gaps in mind.听

鈥淥ne thing we all learned was that snow people and tree people speak different languages,鈥� Lumbrazo said. 鈥淒ifferent experts look at totally different variables to help them decide whether or not to cut down a single tree. So an important goal is to get everyone speaking the same language. And I think this paper is one step towards better communication.鈥�

Overall, the results suggest practical changes to forest management practices in the eastern Cascades. For example, managers might consider more tree-thinning on north-facing slopes, since snowpack gains may be greater there. With further research, these learnings may also extend to other regions in the Pacific Northwest.听

The work could also aid collaboration between forest managers and hydrologists at a time when the region needs all the water it can get.

鈥淎s we lose snowpack, everything becomes really squeezed,鈥� said co-author , a senior aquatic ecologist at TNC who earned her doctorate in aquatic and fishery sciences at the UW. 鈥淲e are currently in our third consecutive year of water restrictions in the Yakima River Basin, and are staring down one of the lowest snow years on record. However, our research shows that the treatments currently used for restoring fire resilient forests are compatible with the forest structure needed for supporting water security. And in a world where climate change is reducing water supplies and increasing wildfire severity, we are pleased to report that the same forest treatments can support both goals.鈥�

Co-authors include , a former UW graduate student of civil and environmental engineering; , a former UW undergraduate student of atmospheric and climate science; , a data processing specialist at the UW RAPID facility; and , director of Forest Conservation and Management at The Nature Conservancy.

This research was funded by The Washington Department of Natural Resources, The Nature Conservancy and the National Science Foundation.听

For more information, contact Lundquist at jdlund@uw.edu, Dickerson-Lange at dickers@uw.edu or Howe at emily.howe@tnc.org.听

Officials across multiple states in the Southeast . Devastating hurricanes , and researchers are focused on how to help communities become more resilient.

One way to prepare is to have a full picture of what happens before, during and after a major hurricane. This information provides key details, such as wind speed and wave height during a landfall event, that can inform infrastructure design so it鈥檚 better able to withstand these types of storms.

Days before Hurricane Helene descended, 天美影视传媒 researchers in the traveled to Cedar Key, Florida, and Horseshoe Beach, Florida, two small coastal communities near where the hurricane was predicted to make landfall. UW researchers collaborated with people at the University of Florida, the and the to collect pre-storm data and place sensors to measure storm surge levels and wave height during the landfall event. Team members are headed back to Florida next week to collect post-storm data.

UW News asked , the RAPID Facility’s operations manager, about the trip and why this research is important.

What data did you collect before the storm arrived?

Michael Grilliot: For this project, we collaborated with , an associate professor in the Engineering School for Sustainable Infrastructure and Environment at the University of Florida. To get before-storm data, we did lidar scans of beach fronts and nearby buildings and infrastructure systems. We also used a drone to collect aerial photos of Cedar Key. These images can be stitched together into a 3D model.

To collect data during the event, a team led by , associate professor in the Engineering School for Sustainable Infrastructure and Environment at the University of Florida, .

UW RAPID staff also helped deploy 17 wave gauges and four pore pressure sensors to detect storm surge depth, timing and wave information during the storm. , a UW undergraduate student studying electrical and computer engineering who has worked for the RAPID Facility for several years, built 13 of the wave gauges that we deployed. Our wave gauges are almost as robust as commercially available models, but we built them for one-tenth of the cost. If we lose one in the storm, it’s not as much of a financial loss.

What do the wave gauges look like?

MG: They are 13 inches long in PVC pipe with a pressure sensor exposed on one end. Unfortunately they look kind of like a pipe bomb, so we put RAPID stickers all over them to try to make them more unassuming, especially when we fly with them. They say 鈥淩ESEARCH鈥� on them very clearly.

How do they work?

MG: Pressure increases with water depth, so as the storm surges we see a sharp increase in the recorded pressure. We do have to calibrate the instruments for ambient atmospheric pressure, which changes quite a bit during a hurricane, so there is some post-processing that we have to do before reporting actual water depths.

We attach the gauge to anything we think has a good chance of surviving the storm. This could be a light pole, dock pilings or street signs. We work a lot with private landowners to find locations with limited access to reduce the chance that someone might steal them. Once they are placed, we measure the sensor with a high-precision GPS to know the exact elevation of the pressure sensor.

After the storm and post-processing, we can report water levels as a depth above mean sea level, or, if the sensors are installed over land, simple flooding depth. It’s far easier for people to understand that they would be standing in 9 feet of water if they were standing where the wave gauge was installed instead of reporting something like “13 feet above mean sea level,” which sounds more abstract to people.

What data did you get from the wave gauges during the storm?

MG: Our partners at the University of Florida retrieved the wave gauges on Sunday and downloaded the data on Monday.

Peak surge occurs in a matter of hours once the water starts to rise. It almost looks like a heartbeat on an electrocardiogram. The water is much slower to recede, taking all night or all day to reach pre-storm levels. Superimposed on all of this are the smaller ups and downs of the waves. At first glance the data looks quite noisy, but we are able to filter out noise and capture what’s important.

The wave data shows the conditions during the peak surge, which will help modelers understand the energy and forces these waves exerted on buildings on the shore. It also shows us the flood level, which helps us know which level or floor of a building would be experiencing these waves.

Wave and storm surge levels during hurricanes are often predicted based on models, so this dataset can also help researchers validate and better calibrate their predictive models.

There are often a few wave gauges in place that catch storm surges. But this was unique in the fact that we were able to respond on such short notice to place so many sensors in conjunction with the pre-storm lidar and drone imagery. Also, some of the locations would have had no sensors and data available without our wave gauge deployment. That, combined with the wind data from the University of Florida’s tower makes a robust pre-storm and during-storm dataset that has not been captured before.

When you return to the area next week, what will you measure?

MG: We will be looking for a lot of coastal changes. We’ll be flying drone lidar as well as doing ground-based lidar, and collecting more imagery to capture changes to the beach, mangroves and structures. Understanding the changes in beach morphology is equally as important as understanding the damage to the structures. If we can learn what happens to the sediment and seabed, we can better predict what will happen above.

We are also taking the Z-boat this time. This remote-controlled boat will allow us to create a topographic map of underwater depth.

How will this research help communities prepare for future hurricanes?

MG: Ultimately, the hope is that we can build structures that can withstand the forces that we are measuring 鈥� both through the damage we see and in the data we captured during the storm. We hope that this will help people better predict storm surges and wave heights, and that people will be able to know how at risk they are, trust that information and act accordingly to save lives and property.

This research is part of a larger effort led by the Nearshore Extreme Events Reconnaissance (NEER) Association in collaboration with the Geotechnical Extreme Events Reconnaissance (GEER) Association, which are both funded by the National Science Foundation.

For more information, contact Grilliot at grilliot@uw.edu and Nina Stark, who is also the associate director of the UF Center for Coastal Solutions and the NEER team lead, at nina.stark@essie.ufl.edu.

A first-of-its-kind center housed at the 天美影视传媒 has received a from the National Science Foundation.

The offers a way for researchers to get their hands on state-of-the-art equipment to study the effects of natural disasters, such as hurricanes, wildfires and earthquakes. This facility contains more than 100 unique instruments, including a variety of drones and a remote-controlled boat that uses sonar to scan what鈥檚 happening underwater.

“Before RAPID, it was ad hoc, DIY or sometimes BYO (bring your own) equipment to a reconnaissance mission,” said facility director , a UW professor in the civil and environmental engineering department. “The few people who had reconnaissance instruments, such as lidar, tended to be very overburdened in the sense that they were asked to participate in numerous missions. It didn’t leave space and room for others to join.”

Since opening its doors in 2018, the RAPID Facility has transformed how data is gathered, processed and saved in the aftermath of natural disasters. So far, this center has supported 80 field missions around the world, including helping investigate and using a to develop new methods to assess the structural integrity of buildings after an earthquake.

Use the interactive visualization below to explore all 80 of the RAPID Facility’s deployments:

The NSF renewal grant provides this center with four additional years of funding and a 30% budget increase to advance the natural hazards reconnaissance field through new initiatives.

The RAPID Facility is part of a larger network of experimental research facilities at seven universities across the country. These centers were founded in 2016 through the NSF’s program.

“We have everything we need to start making even more significant breakthroughs in years to come,” Wartman said. “I am very optimistic about what will come from the RAPID. Even in the first few months of the renewal, I’ve seen exciting uses of data and innovations in reconnaissance.”

For more information, contact RAPID Facility staff at uwrapid@uw.edu.

As the city of Seattle shut down in March 2020 to try to slow the spread of COVID-19, a group of 天美影视传媒 researchers got to work.

The team developed a project that scans the streets every few weeks to document what’s happening around the city 鈥� answering questions such as: Are people outside? Are restaurants open? This project, which began in May and will continue until at least fall of 2021, collects images of how Seattle has reacted to the pandemic and what recovery looks like. This creates a massive dataset that documents what was happening at any particular point in time. The researchers hope the data will help answer questions about what makes a city resilient and how to better prepare for potential future pandemics and other disasters.

The team will present this project Oct. 1 at the through the UW School of Public Health.

“We talk about resilience a lot in disaster sciences. There are lots of theories about what makes a community resilient to natural hazards, but we don’t fully understand resilience to pandemics, partially because we just haven’t been through these events at this scale,” said co-lead researcher , an assistant professor of environmental and occupational health sciences. “This project provided us with an opportunity to see what’s important for resilience in this context. What are people doing? Where are they recreating? Are they following distancing and mask-wearing recommendations? And how do their activities change as the pandemic progresses?”

Video footage taken from the team’s first drive on May 1, 2020.

To track what’s happening in Seattle, the researchers drive a car with a camera similar to Google Street View on top throughout the city.

“This is an amazing tool for quickly gathering highly perishable data from across the city,” said co-lead researcher , a professor of civil and environmental engineering. “Unless we capture these scenes now, these sights 鈥� and the rich data they contain 鈥� will be lost forever. I can already see a significant difference between the May dataset and what’s happening now. For example, when we first drove past Harborview Medical Center, no one was present on the block. Now it’s beginning to look like it used to.”

The team captured this series of photos from outside Harborview Medical Center between June and August 2020. The June photo shows very few people in the area. In July, there are people waiting at the bus stop. By August, there are more people at the bus stop and the surrounding areas.听Credit: 天美影视传媒

The team’s route takes between eight and 11 hours to drive each time.

“We wanted the route to capture different aspects of the city 鈥� such as restaurants, hospitals, schools, parks and museums 鈥� and also make sure we had an equal representation across a variety of neighborhoods,” said co-lead researcher , a senior principal research scientist in the human centered design and engineering department.

The researchers try to start the drive at 8 a.m. on Friday, every few weeks, to maintain a consistent schedule, but it depends on weather, specifically the camera doesn’t work in the rain. They also drive on some Sundays to try to capture any variation between weekdays and weekends.

The Street-View-like camera creates huge datasets 鈥� each drive is turned into tens of thousands of images that make up an almost 2-terabyte file. So the researchers are developing algorithms to help them identify things such as cars, people and whether they are physically distancing in each frame. Identities 鈥� such as human faces and vehicle license plates 鈥� will be blurred.

“When people study disaster recovery, they often look at location data from smartphones or transaction data from debit or credit cards,” said co-lead researcher , an assistant professor of industrial and systems engineering. “But these data points do not necessarily capture everyone in a community. By looking at our images, I hope we are creating a dataset that better represents all people who live and work in Seattle.”

Any insights gained from this project, such as how people respond to mask recommendations or which populations might need more resources, can help other cities better understand their own recovery trends the researchers said.

“People talk about this as a 100-year pandemic, because the last major pandemic was in 1918,” Errett said. “Now conditions are much different 鈥� we have increased population density, climate change and more. I don’t think we’re going to be waiting another hundred years. So whatever we can do to learn from this experience will help us develop better policies and plans for the future.”

Jaqueline Peltier, an operations specialist in civil and environmental engineering; , a doctoral student in industrial and systems engineering; Christopher Salazar, a master’s student in industrial and systems engineering; and Vanessa Yang, an undergraduate student in statistics and informatics, are also part of this project. This research is funded by the National Science Foundation.

For more information, contact Errett at nerrett@uw.edu, Wartman at wartman@uw.edu, Miles at milessb@uw.edu and Choe at ychoe@uw.edu.

Grant number: 聽CMMI-2031119

After a natural disaster, researchers often want to collect information about what happened so that they can improve infrastructure and community resilience in the future.

A center housed at the 天美影视传媒, which opened its doors Sept. 1, offers a new way for these scientists to get their hands on state-of-the-art equipment to study the effects of natural disasters. The , which is the first of its kind in the world, contains over 300 instruments 鈥� including eight different drones, headsets to record brainwave activity and a remote-controlled boat that uses sonar to scan what’s happening underwater 鈥� that are available for researchers around the world to use. The facility also hosts staff members who support data-gathering missions either by training scientists to use the equipment or by helping with data collection and analysis.

“It really empowers many people in the research community to begin doing the kind of work that they weren’t able to do before simply because they didn’t have access to these tools,” said facility director , a professor in the UW’s civil and environmental engineering department. “Our vision is to transform the natural hazards research field by helping researchers collect high-quality data that is useful across disciplines. We hope it will lead to a deeper understanding of the impacts of natural hazards so we can reduce their effects in the future.”

Since September, RAPID has sent equipment and/or researchers to help assess damage after multiple natural disasters, including hurricanes Michael and Florence, an earthquake in Japan, an earthquake and tsunami in Indonesia, and large landslides in Alaska and near Portland, Oregon. In addition, the team helps researchers study natural hazards in large-scale laboratory settings, and has been assisting a research team in Japan with collecting and processing earthquake-simulation data from the largest shake table in the world.

“We digitally archive these disaster scenes so they can be analyzed and reanalyzed and made available to the research community, to first responders, to rescue groups,” Wartman said.听 “Anyone who wants to investigate natural disasters, we’re here to serve them.”

RAPID was initially and is part of the National Science Foundation’s .

###

For more information, contact the RAPID office at 206-616-3318 or uwrapid@uw.edu.

B-roll, soundbites and photos are available upon request.