“Prices stayed strong but as a result, affordability continued to be elusive for the average homebuyer in the year’s third quarter, a trend compounded by a drop in permitting activity,” said Peter Orser, Runstad Center interim director.

“Unfortunately, affordability across the state improved only slightly for first-time homebuyers, as improving incomes and low interest rates have helped to mitigate the problem, but their capacity still remains well below the affordable benchmark.

“Affordability for all buyers, first time or otherwise, is most distressed in King County where all indices are well below affordable norms.”

The statewide median sales price for a single family home rose to $305,000 in the year’s third quarter, 4.3 percent higher than the third quarter of 2015, but falling from the all-time high of $317,500 set in the second quarter of 2016.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of existing home sales rose 10.1 percent from the third quarter of 2015 to 120,420. This means that if the quarter’s pace continued unchanged for a year, that number of homes would be sold. Although robust, the current annual rate of sales is well below its high in 2003.

Home sales rose in all but five of the state’s 39 counties in the third quarter. The biggest increase was 42.3 percent in Chelan County. While King County sales were up 15.1 percent, residential building permits were off 40.6 percent.

Also in the third quarter of 2016:

Home prices statewide: Up 12.5 percent over 2015 in King County to a median price of $552,400, placing it among five highest-priced counties nationwide.

First-time buyer index: Increased from 78.7 to 80.7, with 100 being where a middle-income family earning 70 percent of median income can qualify for a median-priced home, given 20 percent down and a 30-year mortgage.

A “snapshot” of sales, permits, median home prices and affordability data for all Washington counties is available at the Runstad Center’s website.

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For more information, contact Orser at 206-795-7008 or porser@uw.edu.

The statewide median sales price for a single family home rose to $317,500 in the second quarter of 2016, 11 percent higher than the second quarter of 2015, breaching the all-time high of $316,700 set in the second quarter of 2007.

Similarly, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of existing home sales rose 3.4 percent from the second quarter of 2015 — to 109,359. This means that if the quarter’s pace continued unchanged for a year, that number of homes would be sold. Although robust, the current annual rate of sales is well below the high in 2003.

Home sales rose in 28 of the state’s 39 counties in the second quarter of 2016. The highest increase in home sales in counties with more than 1,000 sales was in Clallam County at 84.6 percent. Interestingly, King County, the largest in sales volume, was the only county with at least 1,000 sales to show a decrease (-1.8 percent) over this time last year.

Home prices in King County rose a healthy 14 percent over 2015, reaching a median price of $568,400. Jefferson County had the largest price increase overall of 24.3 percent reaching $325,000 for a median priced home. Median prices were lower than a year earlier in seven counties.

Housing affordability for all buyers statewide reversed its recent course and fell slightly in the second quarter. That index — where 100 means a middle-income family can just qualify for a median-priced home, given a 20 percent down payment and a 30-year fixed mortgage rate at prevailing rates — was 133.7, down from 143 in 2015, meaning affordability continues to be more and more elusive.

Statewide, the first-time buyer index showed another decrease, of 4.7 points, ending the quarter at 76.3. This index assumes a less expensive home, lower down payment and lower income. It means that a household earning 70 percent of the median household income, as may be true of first-time buyers, had only 76 percent of the income required to purchase a typical starter home statewide.

Affordability remains a challenge in the state’s housing market, compounded by permitting activity that fell from 7,755 new units in the second quarter of 2015 to 6,627 under construction compared with a year ago, a drop of 14.5 percent.

The Runstad Center produces home sales statistics in partnership with Washington Realtors. Each quarterly release coincides with information from the National Association of Realtors regarding median home prices by metropolitan area.

Sales, median home prices and affordability data for all Washington counties are available at the Runstad Center’s 

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For more information, contact Orser, acting director of the Runstad Center, at 206-795-7008 or porser@uw.edu.

Stevenson is a professor of real estate and finance at Reading’s Henley Business School and director of its graduate program in real estate finance. He will begin transitioning to the new position on September 1, and will become full-time at the Runstad Center in January 2017.

A past president of the International Real Estate Society, Stevenson in 2006 received the society’s , given for excellence in research, service to the society and corporate leadership. He is also co-editor of the Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, an industry-focused publication of the American Real Estate Society. Stevenson previously held positions at City University London and University College Dublin. After undergraduate work at Liverpool John Moores University, he earned a master of science degree from the University of Stirling and a doctorate from University College Dublin.

Stevenson’s research focuses mainly on public real estate markets, particularly real estate investment trusts and the economics of investment management and housing. He has published over 75 papers in leading real estate and finance journals.

He said he is looking forward to joining the Runstad Center at “an extremely exciting” point in its history.

“I hope that, together with the great team already in position, I can contribute to the continued growth and development of the center and its activities,” Stevenson said. “An added attraction and benefit is Seattle itself. Moving to such a vibrant economy and real estate market has huge appeal professionally.”

Stevenson succeeds , a Washington real estate executive who has served as interim director for the past year. The last permanent director was Stephen O’Connor, who served in that role from 2012 to 2015.

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For more information about the Runstad Center contact Orser at 206-795-7008 or porser@uw.edu.

A new study from the ÌìÃÀÓ°ÊÓ´«Ã½’s suggests that Seattle and Washington state could invite development of more affordable housing by easing the legal risk — or the appearance of risk — in condominium development, construction, liability and insurance.

The report, “Incentivizing Condominium Development in Washington State: A Market and Legal Analysis,” was released today (July 28) by the center, which is part of the UW’s .

The Runstad Center undertook the work after the city of Seattle’s July 2015 Housing and Livability Agenda (HALA) suggested Seattle work with the center “to explore options to stimulate the condo development market, including revising the warranty scheme in the ().”

The Runstad Center’s study proceeds from the reality that Seattle is growing rapidly in population and wealth, but that wealth is increasingly concentrated at the top of the income spectrum. Condominium production in Seattle over the last five years has been among the highest of major West Coast cities, but the mean price of a condominium rose 84 percent between 2010 and 2015, making them unaffordable to most area households. Prices far exceed recent increases in household income, and housing supply is not keeping up with demand.

Runstad researcher examined housing and condo availability data for San Francisco, Los Angeles and San Diego, California; as well as Portland, Oregon; Phoenix, Arizona; and Las Vegas, Nevada.

Leon’s study cites a combination of real estate, insurance and market forces contributing to the lack of affordable condos in the Seattle area, as well as geography, land use regulation and state legislation. He adds, though, that soaring prices do not appear to be caused by any one of these factors in isolation.

The pertinent legislation, the Washington State Condominium Act, contains several provisions designed to protect homebuyers, improve construction quality and reduce the cost of resolving disputes over construction defects.

Leon’s study suggests that “to respond to the growing concerns about housing affordability, it may make sense to remove some of the perception of risk and uncertainty” imposed by the act. Toward that end, he suggests:

• clarifying the nature of a construction defect
• incentivizing repairs rather than money damages as a remedy;
• making arbitration mandatory and binding;
• narrowing the standard of appeal from arbitration decisions, and
• limiting attorneys’ fees or adjusting them to a knowable schedule.

There is enough economic incentive for developers to build condos in Seattle’s downtown core, the report states, because that location allows larger buildings that bring higher prices. “Because the potential economic returns of this type of large-scale development offsets the higher costs and any actual or perceived risks, the market has seen a preponderance of this higher end product.”

Peter Orser, Runstad Center director, said that if built in sufficient numbers and at less than high-rise densities, condos could provide an attractive option, “potentially affordable to families earning the median household income.”

But for the market to be incentivized to build smaller-scale and more affordable condos without public subsidy, the report concludes, “the opportunity must offset the greater perceived risks.

“Lowering the regulatory costs and construction costs are subjects for another study. However, it is clear that insurance costs and the risk of litigation are factors that, if mitigated, can contribute to tipping the scale toward the delivery of more affordable for-sale condominium product, as there is clearly a very strong demand.”

Leon’s report also notes that the HALA report and the Washington Condominium Act provide for a home warranty insurance program similar to British Columbia, where condominium development exceeds all the cities studied in the paper.

The research was funded by the Washington State Department of Licensing, the state agency that licenses the state’s 30,000 commercial and residential brokers and real estate agents.

Orser said additional research along these lines might include more study of other cities and states to determine best practices in condominium construction, insurance, financing and legal liability.

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For more information, contact Orser at 206-795-7008 or porser@uw.edu

The statewide median sales price for a single family home rose to $289,400 in the first quarter, 8.1 percent higher than the same time in 2015, though still significantly lower than the all-time high of $316,700 in the second quarter of 2007.

Similarly, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of existing home sales rose 4.9 percent from the first quarter of 2015 to 95,730 homes. This means that if the quarter’s pace continued unchanged for a year, that number of homes would be sold. The current annual rate of sales is well below the high witnessed in 2003, and generally attributable to a very low supply of available homes listed for sale.

Home prices rose in every county across the state except for Adams and Chelan counties. Wahkiakum recorded the highest relative increase of 200 percent, followed by San Juan at 88.5 percent and Skamania at 78.6 percent. Median prices were lower than 2015 in only two counties — Adams County at 22.8 percent and Chelan County 2.5 percent below last year.

Given the market diversity in the state, median housing prices are highly variable, ranging from $85,000 in Ferry County to $958,300 in San Juan County. King County has the second highest median values, at $674,500.

Housing affordability for all buyers statewide declined slightly in the first quarter. That index — where 100 means a middle-income family can just qualify for a median-priced home, given a 20 percent down payment and a 30-year fixed mortgage rate at prevailing rates — was 143.4, down from 152 in the fourth quarter of 2015. This metric suggests that, given the same down payment and mortgage, a middle-income family can afford a home selling for 43 percent above the statewide median.

Statewide, the first-time buyer index dropped from 85.9 to 81.7. This index assumes a less expensive home, lower down payment and lower income. It means that a household earning 70 percent of the median household income — as may be true of first-time buyers — had only 81.7 percent of the income required to purchase a typical starter home statewide.

Housing affordability varied widely across the state. The least affordable county continues to be San Juan County. King County, with an index of 76 is the only other county below the index benchmark of 100. This statewide perspective is a dramatic shift from prior reports, particularly for urbanized “west side” counties. This would suggest that incomes are growing at rates faster than median home prices in most counties, in effect keeping them relatively affordable.

Prices continue to rise, in some counties in an unsustainable fashion; new permits, a key indicator, are down a 59.7 compared to a year ago. King County is probably the best example of the effect on price, when high demand occurs in the face of low supply. In that county, permits are down 87.5 percent and sales are down 6.3 percent due to a low supply of listings, which in turn is leading to a 49.9 percent increase in median home prices.

The Runstad Center produces home sales statistics in partnership with Washington Realtors. Each quarterly release coincides with information from the National Association of Realtors regarding median home prices by metropolitan area.

Sales, median home prices and affordability data for all Washington counties are available at the Runstad Center’s 

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For more information, contact Peter Orser at Porser@uw.edu.

Home sale prices were up fractionally in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared to the third quarter but up 9.7 percent compared with the previous year, and the rate of home sales also dropped, according to the  at the ÌìÃÀÓ°ÊÓ´«Ã½.

The statewide median sales price for a single family home stood at $292,900 in the final quarter of 2015.

Similarly, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of existing home sales fell 7.9 percent from the third quarter of 2015 — from 101,950 to 93,910 homes — while remaining almost a percentage point above that time in 2014. This means that if the fourth quarter’s pace continued unchanged for a year, that number of homes would be sold.

And though the volume of sales has recovered since the recent years of recession, the limited supply of inventory for sale in urban markets continues to keep the sales pace constrained, overshadowing some growth in more rural markets.

In the fourth quarter of 2015, home prices rose in all but three of the state’s metropolitan counties. For counties with greater than 3,000 sales (for statistical significance), King County recorded the highest relative increase of 10.1 percent, followed by Kitsap County at 10 percent. Median prices were lower than a year earlier in seven counties, with prices in Columbia County coming in 40 percent below last year, though with only 30 sales.

Given the variety of location and market diversity in the state, median housing prices are highly variable, ranging from $85,000 in rural Lincoln County to $494,500 in urban King County.

Housing affordability for all buyers statewide changed its recent course and rose in the fourth quarter. That index — where 100 means a middle-income family can just qualify for a median-priced home, given a 20 percent down payment and a 30-year fixed mortgage rate at prevailing rates — was 140.2, up from 138.9 in the third quarter of 2015.

Statewide, the first-time buyer index showed a slight increase of .9 points from the third quarter, ending the fourth quarter at 79.7. This index assumes a less expensive home, lower down payment and lower income. This means that a household earning 70 percent of the median household income — as may be true of first-time buyers — had only 79.7 percent of the income required to purchase a typical starter home statewide.

Though up in general, housing affordability varied widely across the state. The least affordable county continues to be San Juan, and Columbia County the most affordable. For first-time buyers in metropolitan areas, King County was the least affordable.

Affordability remains a challenge in the state’s housing market, the report said. Permitting dropped a surprising 66.4 percent with King County declining 4.2 percent which will ultimately lead to further supply problems and compound concerns about affordability.

The Runstad Center produces home sales statistics in partnership with Washington Realtors. Each quarterly release coincides with information from the National Association of Realtors regarding median home prices by metropolitan area.

Sales, median home prices and affordability data for all Washington counties are available at the center’s 

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For more information, contact Orser at 206-795-7008 or porser@uw.edu

The statewide median sales price for a single family home stood at $291,900 according to the in the ÌìÃÀÓ°ÊÓ´«Ã½’s . This is represents only a slight increase of 0.01 percent from the second quarter or $2,600 and a 0.9 percent increase over the third quarter of 2014.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of existing home sales rose 7.8 percent from the second to the third quarter of 2015, and increased 5.7 percent from the same quarter last year. In all, 101,950 homes were sold on a seasonally adjusted basis for the quarter, meaning that if the quarter’s pace continued unchanged for a year, that number of homes would be sold. And though most economic statistics are reported with seasonally adjusted annual rates, these are not forecasts of future activity.

The state’s most populated counties — King, Pierce and Snohomish — each saw a decrease and in median price and volume of sales. Looking at other counties with at least 1,000 sales (for statistical significance), there were some winners: Clark County prices were up 8.5 percent, Kitsap 2 percent, Skagit 11.4 percent and Thurston 4.3 percent.

Median prices were lower than 2014 in 18 of the state’s 39 counties, with prevailing prices in Adams County at 16.1 percent below last year. Given the state’s market diversity, median house prices are highly variable, ranging from $75,500 in Lincoln County to $491,000 in King County.

Housing affordability for all buyers statewide continued to fall in the third quarter of 2015. That index — where 100 means a middle-income family can just qualify for a median-priced home, given a 20 percent down payment and a 30-year fixed mortgage rate at prevailing rates — was slightly lower at 143 from 144.2 the previous quarter.

The least affordable county continues to be San Juan, with an all-buyer housing affordability index of 84.6; the most affordable was Lincoln County, registering a value of 401. For first-time buyers, Benton County was again the most affordable and King County the least affordable.

Affordability is by far the largest concern in the state’s housing market, particularly in urban counties. However, Pierce and Snohomish counties, bounding King County to the north and south, indicate an affordability index of 156 and 128 respectively.

Statewide, the first-time buyer index also showed a small but continuing erosion of affordability, ending the quarter at 78.8 down from 80.4. The first-time buyer index assumes a less expensive home, lower down payment and lower income. This means that a household earning 70 percent of the median household income — as may be true of first-time buyers — had only 78.8 percent of the income required to purchase a typical starter home statewide.

Permitting activity, which represents both multifamily and single family buildings, has fallen dramatically from 9,000 new units a year ago to 5,424 in this period, which is a 38.9 percent decrease. King County is most striking with a 71.7 percent decrease, which raises questions about buildable land supply and may reignite price appreciation in the future.

The Runstad Center produces home sales statistics in partnership with Washington Realtors. Each quarterly release coincides with information from the National Association of Realtors regarding median home prices by metropolitan area.

Sales, median home prices and affordability are available at the Runstad Center’s website.

###

For more information, contact Runstad Center Director Peter Orser at 206-795-7008 or porser@uw.edu.

The statewide median sales price for a single family home rose to $289,300 in the second quarter of 2015, 9.5 percent higher than the second quarter of 2014, though still significantly lower than the all-time high of $316,700 in the second quarter of 2007.

Similarly, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of existing home sales rose 8.9 percent from the second quarter of 2014 — to 94,550. This means that if the quarter’s pace continued unchanged for a year, that number of homes would be sold. Although robust, the current annual rate of sales is 33 percent below the high in 2003.

Home sales rose in all of the state’s 17 metropolitan counties in the second quarter of 2015. Of the state’s 39 counties, the highest increase in home sales was in Wahkiakum County at 34.6 percent, followed by Skamania County at 32.4 percent. Median prices were lower than a year earlier in only two counties, with prices in Lincoln County Washington coming in 39 percent below last year.

Given the variety of location and market diversity in the state, median housing prices are highly variable, ranging from $85,000 in Lincoln County to $495,500 in King County.

Housing affordability for all buyers statewide reversed its recent course and fell slightly in the second quarter. That index — where 100 means a middle-income family can just qualify for a median-priced home, given a 20 percent down payment and a 30-year fixed mortgage rate at prevailing rates — was 143.1, down from 152 in the first quarter of 2015.

Statewide, the first-time buyer index showed a decrease of 4.9 points, ending the quarter at 81.0. This index assumes a less expensive home, lower down payment and lower income. This means that a household earning 70 percent of the median household income, as may be true of first-time buyers, had only 81 percent of the income required to purchase a typical starter home statewide.

Though down in general, housing affordability varied widely across the state. The least affordable county continues to be San Juan, and Lincoln County the most affordable.

For first-time buyers that pattern was mirrored, with Lincoln again being the most affordable, and San Juan continuing to be the least affordable. Nearly all counties east of the Cascades were affordable to first-time home buyers (Kittitas being the exception) while five counties west of the mountains, especially in the central Puget Sound area, presented issues for first-time home buyers.

Affordability remains a challenge in the state’s housing market, the report said. This is despite continued strong permitting activity of nearly 7,755 new units, primarily in multifamily housing developments in metro areas, marking a 3.8 percent increase in the number of units under construction compared with a year ago.

The Runstad Center produces home sales statistics in partnership with Washington Realtors. Each quarterly release coincides with information from the National Association of Realtors regarding median home prices by metropolitan area.

Sales, median home prices and affordability data for all Washington counties are available at the Runstad Center’s 

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For more information, contact Peter Orser at 206-795-7008 or porser@uw.edu.