About a decade ago, a group of climate scientists described. Called the (SSPs), these scenarios suggest how socioeconomic development could evolve in worlds with differing challenges to climate adaptation and mitigation.��

One SSP, “Sustainability,” envisions a collective shift toward green energy, reducing economic inequities and investments in research and development. Another, “Regional Rivalry,” paints a picture of a world riven by nationalism and fighting over resources. In that future, high levels of conflict stifle economic development. Rich countries see slower population growth, while birth rates increase in poorer nations.��

Scientists and policymakers use SSPs to project how today’s choices affect tomorrow’s world. But for complex subjects like public health, these intentionally simple scenarios don’t capture every complexity. Under the SSP “Fossil-Fueled Development,” for example, the world doubles down on fossil fuels, spurring rapid economic growth. That growth, according to the scenario, would spur investments in education and health. But at the same time, increased emissions would degrade the environment, exacerbating health risks.

That description leaves many public health questions unanswered: Would hospital systems be better prepared to handle the increased volume? Could more frequent heat waves lead people to spend more time inside, amplifying mental health burdens?��

Last year, a group of 63 experts in climate change and health met in Vienna to extend the SSPs to better reflect the dynamic nature of public health over the course of the century. Their expanded narratives, published , provide comprehensive visions of possible population health and health system development and explore how communities might better prepare for shifting future health risks.

, a UW doctoral student in environmental and occupational health sciences, attended the workshop and is lead author of the accompanying paper. UW News sat down with Green to talk about where previous climate scenarios fell short, the conference’s work and how we can better prepare to keep each other safe in an uncertain future.��

What are the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, and how do we use them?��

Carole Green: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways are a narrative framework that can be used in conjunction with pathways of greenhouse gas emissions to project future climate impacts to 2100. The SSPs are basically descriptions of the societal choices that affect the magnitude and pattern of interventions to protect human health and well-being.

The SSPs are essentially five possible alternatives for our future world. These pathways have been expanded to incorporate a wide range of issues of relevance for public health, and have been downscaled to describe what the future might look like in different countries and regions.

SSPs are featured in global processes like United Nations, where negotiators come from around the world to debate and agree on approaches to build resilience and sustainability to climate changes. The models help us understand how those choices interact and what the effects might be.��

We also use the SSPs in health research to understand the possible magnitude and geographic pattern of health impacts from climate change over the course of this century. Many projects at UW use future warming levels to analyze things like future wildfire impacts on Washington residents (research done by ����’s Climate Impacts Group).��

What do the SSPs leave out?��

CG: SSPs assume that humans will make socioeconomic changes in the future. The changes described in the pathways originally quantified GDP and population changes. Our work adds complexity, specifically to understand how the future of public health could evolve under these five pathways.

A lot of people are interested in heat waves, for example. Climate modeling alone can capture the planet’s warming, but doesn’t consider issues like how access to hospitals and healthcare could change by 2100. Current heat wave modeling looks at the climate interactions that shape health impacts but don’t explore how concurrent changes in society could interact with climate change to impact people’s well-being.��

Once you added complexity into the SSPs, what changed in your understanding of possible futures? Did you learn anything new or surprising?

CG: We learned that the drivers of health impacts are complex, and many are neither entirely good nor bad. Prioritizing sustainability, mitigation and adaptation will not necessarily lead to the best world for each future health outcome, but it definitely affects the future of health and well-being. Health futures we face globally are not predetermined. Different pathways could lead to vastly different health outcomes, with governance, health-system capacity, resources, equity, and cross-sectoral factors such as water and energy playing critical roles.

For example, under one of the scenarios, people don’t prioritize reducing greenhouse emissions, focusing instead on adapting to the changing climate. Strong investment in technology leads to quite a lot of wealth, which can benefit some health outcomes. But it’s not ideal, because people would also have to spend more time indoors because of the growing heat burden and would have to reduce connection to the outdoors and nature. You really don’t want to live in that scenario.

It’s very much a mix, which is challenging.��

Now that we have these fleshed-out scenarios, what does that allow us to do?��

CG: It allows us to have a more complex understanding of future health risks from climate change. Now we can add a layer of understanding and think about more variables than just warming levels and population numbers. It’s made of a lot of complexities that affect health, and those have their own effects.

In future climate scenarios, what does access to healthcare look like? What is the extent of food insecurity? How are we making sure people have access to clean air and water? When we have some understanding of those interactions, then it can motivate decision-makers to develop appropriate policies.��

What comes next?��

CG: We will apply these narratives to six different countries where there has been limited research using the SSPs. We’re working in Brazil, Senegal, South Africa, India, Vietnam and the Solomon Islands. We’ve started identifying key leads across these countries, where there is quite an appetite for this research. All countries are required to develop national health adaptation plans and to conduct vulnerability and adaptation assessments. They are also interested in modeling future health risks. We want to explore the extent to which the SSP narratives apply in their country’s context. Do they fit? How would they look different? There’s a lot of interest in building on local knowledge and bringing local experts together to talk about possible futures.��

We’re also quantifying specific disease burdens, universal healthcare access, water and sanitation infrastructure and digital health. Some quantifications will look at pairing SSPs with certain warming levels to project impacts.��

Last question: This group — including dozens of the world’s leading experts on climate and health — chose you to write the paper. How did that happen?��

CG: I am definitely not the leading expert in that room, so it was very much an honor to work on this and lead the writing. A lot of it comes from my advisor, , who is very supportive of me and my work. That’s been really meaningful. She encouraged me to take this on.

I often tell people that my job is to listen to experts and write down what they say. It was very meaningful to get to make those connections.��

For more information or to reach the researchers, contact Alden Woods at acwoods@uw.edu. Other UW authors include , professor of environmental and occupational health sciences, of global health, and of emergency medicine in the UW School of Medicine; and , research associate professor of urban design and planning.

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Last month, a group of 175 researchers, including eight from the ����Ӱ�Ӵ�ý, co-authored published in Earth’s Future and the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

The paper provides a roadmap for future climate assessments in the U.S. by synthesizing the science and identifying research priorities based on existing gaps. “U.S. Climate Collection: Informing Assessment of Risks and Solutions” is the first article to appear in a launched by the American Geophysical Union and the American Meteorological Society.

Many of the scientists who co-authored this commentary were invited to contribute to the sixth National Climate Assessment (NCA), slated for early 2028, but were then dismissed in April 2025 after the Trump Administration for the assessment. The fifth NCA was published in 2023.��

The federal government is legally required to produce a National Climate Assessment chronicling climate change every four years per the . These assessments track new and evolving risks related to climate change, as well as options for mitigation and adaptation. The national scope is key to ensuring that funding and policies represent a broad range of experiences and concerns. 

“International assessments are valuable, but they are not always tailored to the specific regions and issues that are important in the United States. National assessments fill that gap,” said , Washington state climatologist and a research scientist in the UW Climate Impacts Group.

The special collection is not intended to replace the NCA but rather compile research for other scientists, policymakers and members of the public to aid in decision making. The commentary kicks off the collection by identifying where research has advanced, and how risks have changed, in the years since the last assessment. 

“Our understanding of climate change and its impacts continues to evolve,” said , professor of global health, of environmental and occupational health sciences, and of emergency medicine in the UW School of Medicine. “Conducting regular climate assessments allows us to systematically evaluate that new evidence, incorporate it into our understanding of current circumstances, present it to stakeholders, and apply it to near-term decisions in our respective sectors.” 

UW News asked each of the UW contributors to elaborate on their role in authoring the commentary and how it connects to their research.

, research scientist, UW Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies: “I’m an oceanographer with intimate experience in federal research funding mechanisms and with a broad familiarity with ocean warming and CO2 uptake with associated acidification and feedback on marine ecosystems and fisheries. Initially I was appointed to coordinate among federal agencies, academics and policymakers, but that changed dramatically when the Trump administration eliminated NCA6. In the scramble I became more of an author, and an editor of the Ocean section. 

“Some of my research at the UW involves ocean model development in collaboration with NOAA. It was a natural fit to contribute to the discussions on ‘Simulations of ocean conditions’ and on ‘Innovations in ocean observation and data science.’”

, professor of urban and environmental planning “I led the urban team and the section on urban regions. Urban regions are central to climate assessments. They concentrate populations and human activities, contribute substantially to climate change, and shape how impacts propagate across neighborhoods, metropolitan systems, national supply chains, and global markets. They are also critical places to examine where mitigation and adaptation reinforce one another, where they create trade-offs, and how benefits, costs, and risks are distributed across communities. 

“Our section argues that future assessments must represent cities as complex dynamic systems. We call for comparative, long-term evaluation of urban mitigation and adaptation strategies. For nature-based solutions, that means testing performance under future climate conditions and assessing multiple functions, life-cycle costs, social and ecological outcomes, and trade-offs rather than simply measuring short-term, project-level benefits.”

Mauger: “I contributed to the Northwest section of the paper, based on my expertise in regional climate impacts and adaptation science, specifically around water and flooding. Our synthesis reflects many of the emerging issues I see in my work helping communities, tribes, agencies and others to understand and prepare for the effects of climate change. For example, we highlight new research on the effectiveness of resilience actions — as more communities take action on climate, I am seeing a greater need for research of this kind.”

, principal scientist, UW Climate Impacts Group: “I also contributed to the Northwest section of the paper. My work at UW aims to provide the science, tools and guidance needed by governments and communities as they respond to climate impacts and prepare for those to come. Most of this work is focused on the Northwest, with a heavy emphasis on ecosystems and natural resources. The Northwest section of the paper highlights many of the climate risks and adaptation advances and challenges my partners on the ground face every day.”

Hess: “The takeaways from the health section, which I helped draft, are that we need more information on health impacts from extreme weather and compound events, as well as information on the costs of these impacts. We also need more strategies for advancing adaptation in public health and health care systems; we need health care interventions to protect patients at particular risk; we need more information on nature-based solutions; and we need more information to help convey the health benefits of a clean energy transition. 

“The recommendations related to interventions and adaptation in the health sector are particularly relevant to my work at the UW, which is focused on climate change health impacts and opportunities for increasing resilience of the public health and health care systems. I research these issues and also provide leadership related to sustainability and climate resilience for UW Medicine.”

, professor of global health and of environmental and occupational health sciences: “I was an author on the Air Quality chapter that focused on how climate change could alter exposures to poor quality, from pollen to wildfire smoke to indoor and outdoor air quality. One of my areas of research at UW is quantifying the extent to which reducing greenhouse gas emissions could reduce morbidity and mortality from outdoor air pollution. The evidence is robust that the economic value of the health benefits from reducing greenhouse gas emissions would be of the same order of magnitude — if not larger — than the costs of reducing emissions. In other words, reducing greenhouse gas emissions would benefit Americans by decreasing hospitalizations and deaths.”

Other UW co-authors include , research scientist of environmental and forest sciences and Deputy Director of the Western Fire and Forest Resilience Collaborative and , affiliate professor of environmental and forest sciences. 

For more information, contact Alberti at malberti@uw.edu.

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The ����Ӱ�Ӵ�ý is proud to announce that 56 faculty and researchers who completed their work while at UW have been named on the list from Clarivate.

The annual list identifies researchers who demonstrated significant influence in their chosen field or fields through the publication of multiple highly cited papers during the last decade. Their names are drawn from the publications that rank in the top 1% by citations for field and publication year in the .

Highly Cited Researchers demonstrate significant and broad influence in their fields of research. The total list includes 7,131 awards from more than 1,300 institutions in 60 countries and regions. This small fraction of the global researcher population contributes disproportionately to extending the frontiers of knowledge and contributing to innovations that make the world healthier, more sustainable and which drive societal impact, according to Clarivate.

The that determines the “who’s who” of influential researchers is drawn from data and analysis performed by bibliometric experts and data scientists at the Institute for Scientific Information at Clarivate.

The list below includes faculty and researchers whose primary affiliation is with the UW, Fred Hutch Cancer Center, and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

Please note: Some of the people on the list are no longer with the UW and their current affiliation is noted. This list reflects initial data from Clarivate and may be updated.

Ivan Anishchenko (Vilya)

David Baker

William A. Banks

Gregory N. Bratman

Steven L. Brunton

Guozhong Cao

Ting Cao

Lauren Carter (Gates Medical Research Institute)

Helen Chu

David H. Cobden

Katharine H. D. Crawford

Riza M. Daza

Frank DiMaio

Kristie L. Ebi

Evan E. Eichler

Emmanuela Gakidou

David Ginger

Raphael Gottardo (CHUV)

Alexander L. Greninger

Simon I. Hay

Andrew Hill (Infinimmune)

Eric Huang

Michael C. Jensen (BrainChild)

Neil P.�� King

C. Dirk Keene

J. Nathan Kutz

Eric H. Larson

Aaron Lyon

Michael J. MacCoss

Brendan MacLean

C. M. Marcus

Julian D. Marshall

Ali Mokdad

Thomas J. Montine (Stanford)

Mohsen Naghavi

Marian L. Neuhouser

Julian D. Olden

Robert W. Palmatier

David Pigott

Hannah A. Pliner (Bristol Myers Squibb)

Ganesh Raghu

Stanley Riddell

Andrea Schietinger (Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center)

Jay Shendure

M. Alejandra Tortorici

Troy R. Torgerson (Allen Institute)

Cole Trapnell

Katherine R. Tuttle

David Veesler

Theo Vos

Alexandra C. Walls (BioNTech SE)

Bryan J. Weiner

Di Xiao

Jie Xiao

Xiaodong Xu

Jihui Yang

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Three current UW scientists were among the authors of the assessment, which summarizes climate change that has already occurred, and that is projected in coming decades. This fifth edition includes two new chapters, on economics and on social systems and justice.

, a professor of global health and of environmental and occupational health sciences, was an author on the chapter on . Ebi also co-authored the human health chapter of the fourth assessment, released in 2019, and was a contributing author to the same chapter in

“It is indisputable that climate change is harming human health and well-being, from exposure to extreme weather and climate events, changes in the geographic range and seasonality of infectious diseases, alterations in air quality, reductions in food- and water-security, and impacts on mental wellness,” Ebi said. “Historically marginalized and under-resourced communities face greater harms and exacerbations of health inequities. Future health risks could be reduced, but not eliminated, by strengthening health systems, implementing effective adaptation measures, and mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.”

Dr. , a professor of environmental and occupational health sciences, of global health and of emergency medicine, was an author on the chapter. Hess was previously a lead author of the human health chapter in the third assessment.

“We have ample evidence that climate change is worsening air pollution — in part due to increasing wildfire smoke and pollen levels — and there are clear and worsening impacts on human health,” Hess said. “These impacts are felt most acutely in low-income communities and communities of color. But we also know that smart policies and coordinated action can simultaneously reduce greenhouse gas emissions, improve air quality, and improve health for all, particularly the most impacted.”

, a research scientist at the Climate Impacts Group, was a co-author of the . She also contributed to a cross-cutting section , a new feature that centralizes critical information on key trends.

“The Fifth National Climate Assessment includes more information on response actions and emphasizes action at the state and local levels,” Raymond said. Since 2018, Raymond said, adaptation plans and actions at the city and state level have increased by about a third across the U.S.

Raymond also highlighted the increased focus on engagement in the assessment process, and special steps that have been taken to increase the accessibility of the assessment to wider audiences.

“The process included more opportunities for public engagement, and the fifth assessment includes some great new communication features — Spanish translation, a six-episode podcast series, 92 art pieces featured throughout the assessment and forthcoming regional webinars and workshops,” Raymond said.

also co-authored the Northwest chapter while she was affiliated with the UW Climate Impacts Group. Asinas is now at the Urban Ocean Project in Brooklyn, New York.

��

For more information, contact Ebi at krisebi@uw.edu, Hess at jjhess@uw.edu and Raymond at clrfire@uw.edu.

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The American Geophysical Union Sept. 13 that five ����Ӱ�Ӵ�ý faculty members have been elected as new fellows, representing the departments of astronomy, Earth and space sciences, oceanography, global health, and environmental and occupational health sciences.

The Fellows program recognizes AGU members who have made exceptional contributions to Earth and space sciences through a breakthrough, discovery or innovation in their field. The five UW honorees are among 54 people from around the world in the 2023 Class of Fellows. AGU, the world’s largest Earth and space sciences association, annually recognizes a select number of individuals nominated by their peers for its highest honors. Since 1962, the AGU Union Fellows Committee has selected less than 0.1% of members as new fellows.

Also honored by AGU this year are three UW faculty members, from the departments of Earth and space sciences and atmospheric sciences, who have received other awards.

Here are the ����’s five new AGU Fellows:

, professor of Earth and space sciences, studies which characteristics of Earth help this planet support life, and whether life might be found on other planets. His work spans astronomy, biology and geology, on planetary environments including Earth, Mars, Venus and icy moons, as well as planets outside this solar system. He is the author of “Astrobiology: A Very Short Introduction” for the layperson and “Atmospheric Evolution on Inhabited and Lifeless Worlds” for researchers.

, who holds the Karl M. Banse Endowed Professorship in oceanography, explores the limits and ecological contributions of microbial life in deep ocean and polar regions, focusing in recent years on how microbes adapt to the extreme conditions of Arctic sea ice. In addition to a research and teaching career, Deming founded what is now the UW Center for Environmental Genomics and helped establish the nation’s first graduate training program in astrobiology.

, professor of global health and of environmental and occupational health sciences, has been conducting research on the health risks of climate variability and change for nearly 30 years. She focuses on estimating current and future health risks of climate change, designing adaptation policies and measures to reduce risks in multi-stressor environments, and estimating the health co-benefits of mitigation policies. Ebi is also founding director of the UW , or CHanGE.

, professor of astronomy, is an astrobiologist and planetary astronomer whose research focuses on��predicting, acquiring and analyzing observations of planetary atmospheres and surfaces. In addition to studying planets within our solar system, she is interested in exoplanets — those outside the solar system — and��how they might reveal the presence of life. With the ����’s Virtual Planetary Laboratory, she uses models of planets and planet-star interactions to generate plausible planetary environments and spectra for extrasolar terrestrial planets and the early Earth.

, professor and chair of Earth and space sciences, is a geochemist and glaciologist whose research focuses on polar climate and ice sheets in the Arctic and in Antarctica. He is best known for his analyses of Antarctic ice cores using measurements of oxygen and hydrogen in the ice to better understand how climate has varied in the past, over hundreds to thousands of years.

In addition to the newly elected fellows, UW faculty members are also recognized in several subject-specific awards and lectures:

, professor of atmospheric sciences, will deliver the in December at the AGU’s fall meeting. Alexander studies the relationship between climate change and the chemical composition of the atmosphere. She looks at the pathways by which atmospheric pollutants form, how those chemical pathways can vary, and what that means both for present-day air quality and for the future of climate change.

, research assistant professor of Earth and space sciences, has received the for his research modeling natural disasters using geodesy, or the shape of the Earth’s surface, and seismology. Crowell pioneered ways to use GPS and related data in earthquake and tsunami early warning systems. He is currently using this data to better understand natural disasters as they unfold and develop a risk-mitigation framework for coastal hazards such as tsunamis.

, research assistant professor of Earth and space sciences, has received the . Journaux uses modeling and experiments to explore the conditions in extreme environments on other planets, and how that might affect their ability to harbor life. He is a member of the science team for NASA’s upcoming Dragonfly mission, which will characterize the chemistry and habitability of Saturn’s largest moon, Titan.

, a researcher at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory with an affiliate UW faculty position in oceanography, has received the .

All honorees will be recognized in December at the AGU’s fall meeting in San Francisco.

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Two ����Ӱ�Ӵ�ý experts in climate change and health are lead authors of the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The new report titled , published Monday morning, details in over three thousand pages a “dire warning” about the consequences of inaction on reducing the emissions that are causing our planet to warm and on implementing interventions to prepare for and effectively manage the dangerous impacts of climate change already occurring.

“This report is a dire warning about the consequences of inaction,” said Hoesung Lee, chair of the IPCC, in a . “It shows that climate change is a grave and mounting threat to our wellbeing and a healthy planet. Our actions today will shape how people adapt and nature responds to increasing climate risks.”

����’s , professor of global health and environmental and occupational health sciences in the School of Public Health, and Dr. , professor of emergency medicine at UW School of Medicine and of environmental and occupational health sciences and of global health in the School of Public Health, are lead authors on . Ebi is also a contributing author on the IPCC’s .

Below, the UW professors discuss these threats and the critical necessity of addressing them.

Professor Ebi’s comments:

People are suffering and dying right now from climate change, with the risks projected to increase without urgent and immediate investments in health systems to protect and promote population health. The people and nature we care about in our lives are being affected, with more severe impacts occurring sooner than projected just a few years ago.

The magnitude and pattern of future climate change impacts will depend on choices made in other sectors, such as urbanization plans, efforts to manage growing wildfire risks, and modifications to water systems to account for changing rainfall patterns, and on significant and urgent investments in our health systems.

There’s a long list of effective adaption options that can increase the resilience of our health systems and our health care infrastructure, as well as strengthen the capacity of communities to be better prepared to manage changing weather patterns. The major constraint for health is the insignificant investment in this area; catch-up investments are needed that at least keep pace with climate change.

Nearly all mitigation options have benefits for health. Benefits for our health arise from reducing exposure to harmful air pollutants from emissions from point sources like coal-fired power plants, reducing transportation that relies on internal combustion engines and increasing walking and biking, and changing dietary patterns to eat healthier diets.

The economic value of avoided hospitalizations and avoided premature deaths is of the same order of magnitude if not larger than the cost of implementing these mitigation policies. These policies will benefit the health of our families, friends and colleagues, with lower healthcare costs.

We can’t stop the next heat wave, but people don’t need to die. Not facing up to the risks just puts us in a much worse situation.

The future is in our hands. We may not be able to prevent flooding events or heat waves, but we can be prepared. The choices we make going forward will determine all of our futures.

Dr. Hess’ comments:

The chapter on health, well-being and the changing structure of communities is unprecedented in the breadth and depth of its assessment. And its findings are clear: Climate change is already posing significant and widespread burdens on health, through warming temperatures, extreme heat events, changing precipitation patterns and relative humidity, more frequent and severe storms, and wildfires.

More than half of the disease burden in the world is climate sensitive, and a wide range of diseases, from vector-borne and zoonotic infections, water- and food-borne diseases, injuries and a host of chronic noncommunicable diseases, are all affected.

The report highlights the clear risks to mental health, as well.

Estimates of future risks to health depend heavily on future greenhouse gas emissions, trends in socioeconomic development, rates of population increase, and patterns of aging and urbanization. Under high emissions scenarios, risks associated with heat, undernutrition, diarrheal diseases, and select vector-borne diseases will increase.

The report clearly highlights an overarching need for coordinated climate change adaptation across all sectors, including health, with emphasis on addressing social inequities and other underlying factors that drive vulnerability to climate change impacts.

In the health sector, this means investing in the climate resilience of health systems, increasing universal access to basic health care, developing heat action plans and other early warning systems, supporting efforts to reduce heat risk on the population level, enhancing surveillance for climate-sensitive conditions, controlling disease vectors and developing vaccines for vector-borne diseases, and reducing emissions from health care delivery.

Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions yield substantial health dividends that, in most cases, pay for the mitigation efforts themselves.

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Ebi is the founding director and Hess is the director of the ����’s . Contributing UW authors for Chapter 7 of the IPCC report are , associate professor of environmental and occupational health sciences, and , assistant teaching professor of environmental and occupational health sciences, in the UW School of Public Health. Also,��, associate professor of environmental and occupational health sciences in the UW School of Public Health, was a contributing author to of the full report.

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Outdoor workers in the world’s lower-latitude tropical forests may face a greater risk of heat-related deaths and unsafe working conditions because of deforestation and climate warming, according to a led by The Nature Conservancy, the ����Ӱ�Ӵ�ý and Indonesia’s Mulawarman University.

In the study, researchers found that increased temperatures of 0.95 C (1.7 F) in the deforested areas of Berau Regency, Indonesia, between 2002 and 2018 were linked to roughly 118 additional deaths in 2018, and 20 additional minutes of daily conditions too hot for humans to work in safely. Future climate warming of 2 C (3.6 F) above 2018’s levels could increase deaths in Berau by 20% (approximately 282 additional annual deaths) and another five unsafe work hours per day — even without greater deforestation.

“Ambient heat exposure and internal body heat from heavy physical work can increase the risk of heat-related illnesses, including heat exhaustion and heat stroke — which can be fatal — as well as acute kidney injury and traumatic injuries,” said�� co-author , associate professor and assistant chair of environmental and occupational health sciences in the UW School of Public Health.

Researchers point out that the increase in heat-related deaths with a 2 C rise in global temperatures would be comparable to mortality from other long-term public health challenges in Asia, such as tobacco smoking. In addition, they write, “workers in Berau are already adapting to hotter temperatures due to deforestation, suggesting those engaged in outdoor work may already be approaching their adaptive capacity through behavioral adaptations.”

The study in Lancet Planetary Health used publicly available and secondary data such as satellite monitoring of forest cover, temperatures, climate models, population densities, and the report published annually in The Lancet by the UW Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Researchers focused on Berau as an area emblematic of tropical forest regions facing rapid deforestation.

“Approximately 800 million people live and work in the world’s tropical forest nations,” Spector said. “These forests can act as natural air conditioners and sequester carbon, thus having implications for both climate change adaptation and mitigation. Information from this modeling study should be considered in discussions about trade-offs between economic welfare, human health, the natural environment and decisions about climate change adaptation and mitigation.”

Other UW authors of the study are , graduate student, and , professor and Tamaki Endowed Chair, in the Department of Atmospheric Science; and , professor of global health and environmental and occupational health sciences in the School of Public Health. For complete list of authors and more about the study see The Nature Conservancy’s .

The study was supported by a pilot research grant from the UW Population Health Initiative.

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In a new series on increasingly common extreme heat waves and their impact on human health , a ����Ӱ�Ӵ�ý climate change and health expert joined more than a dozen international experts to warn that��we better prepare.

“The preventable heat stress and deaths during this summer’s heat waves highlight the importance of developing a regional heat action plan. A heat wave early warning and response plan that includes all relevant services, developed and implemented in collaboration with particularly vulnerable communities, can reduce future illnesses and deaths. Longer-term planning for our cities needs to explicitly incorporate a warmer future with more frequent and intense heat waves. A regional heat action plan should be part of a larger plan to prepare for other climate-related hazards, including wildfires, flooding and drought,” said series co-lead author professor of global health and of environmental and occupational health sciences at the ����Ӱ�Ӵ�ý.

Ebi, who is the founding director of the ����’s��, and other authors of The Lancet series will discuss their findings and recommendations for public health practice and public policies

“Two strategic approaches are needed to combat extreme heat. One is climate change mitigation to reduce carbon emissions and alter the further warming of the planet. The other is identifying timely and effective prevention and response measures, particularly for low-resource settings. With more than half of the global population projected to be exposed to weeks of dangerous heat every year by the end of this century, we need to find ways to cool people effectively and sustainably,” Ebi said in

The series’ two main articles — co-led by Ebi and Professor Ollie Jay of the University of Sydney, Australia — cover the and by using personal cooling strategies and changing cities and their built environments.

“It is critical that the personal cooling strategies we recommend in heat-health action plans are based on scientific evidence. After all, having a plan is not enough; it must be the right plan,” Jay told The Lancet. “Too many strategies that are recommended in some existing heat-health action plans seem to be based on conventional wisdom. For example, it is commonly recommended that sugary drinks and high protein meals are avoided, and that fans should not be used, yet studies demonstrate the cooling effectiveness of fans at higher temperatures and other strategies such as self-dousing with water or wearing wet clothing. Early warning systems for extreme heat events, including evidence-based measures to protect vulnerable populations and raising awareness of the health risks posed by heat, will be central to limiting ill health and deaths from heat events, today and in the future.”

In a related (IHME), more than 356,000 deaths were related to heat in 2019, and more deaths are expected as temperatures continue to rise worldwide, the journal .

“Where people live has a major bearing on their risk of exposure to extreme heat and cold. In most regions, cold temperatures have a greater impact on health; however, our analysis finds that the harmful effects of extreme heat can far exceed those caused by cold in places where it is already hot, such as Southern Asia, the Middle East and many parts of Africa. This is very concerning, particularly given that the risk of exposure to high temperatures appears to have been increasing steadily for decades,” , assistant professor of Health Metrics Sciences at IHME, told The Lancet.

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Twenty scientists and engineers at the ����Ӱ�Ӵ�ý are among the 38 new members elected to the Washington State Academy of Sciences for 2021, according to a July 15 . New members were chosen for “their outstanding record of scientific and technical achievement, and their willingness to work on behalf of the Academy to bring the best available science to bear on issues within the state of Washington.”

Current academy members selected 29 of the new members. An additional nine were elected by virtue of joining one of the National Academies.

New UW members who were elected by current academy members are:

• , professor and Port of Tacoma Chair in Environmental Science at UW Tacoma, director of the and science director of the , “for foundational work on the environmental fate, behavior and toxicity of PCBs.”
• , professor of psychology, “for contributions in research on racial and gender inequality that has influenced practices in education, government, and business” and “for shifting the explanation for inequality away from individual deficiencies and examining how societal stereotypes and structures cause inequalities.”
• , professor of chemistry and member faculty at the , “for leadership in the innovative synthesis and chemical modification of nanoscale materials for application in light emission and catalysis.”
• , professor of global health and of environmental and occupational health sciences, and founding director of the , “for work on the health impacts of climate change, on climate impact forecasting, on adaptation to climate change and on climate policy to protect health.”
• , professor of environmental and forest sciences and dean emeritus of the College of the Environment, “for foundational studies of regional paleoenvironmental history and sustained excellence in academic leadership to catalyze and sustain transformative research and educational initiatives.” Graumlich is also president-elect of the American Geophysical Union.
• Dr. , the Joseph W. Eschbach Endowed Chair in Kidney Research and co-director of the , “for pioneering contributions and outstanding achievements in the development of the novel wearable artificial kidney, as well as numerous investigator-initiated clinical trials and multi-center collaborative studies.”
• , professor of environmental chemistry and chair of the Physical Sciences Division at UW Bothell, “for leadership in monitoring and understanding the global transport of atmospheric pollutants from energy production, wildfire, and other sources, as well as science communication and service that has informed citizens and enhanced public policy.”
• , professor and chair of psychology, “for contributions demonstrating how psychological science can inform long-standing issues about racial and gender discrimination” and “for research that has deep and penetrating implications for the law and societal efforts to remedy social inequities with evidence-based programs and actions.”
• , the Leon C. Johnson Professor of Chemistry, member faculty at the and chair of the Department of Chemistry, “for developing new spectroscopy tools for measuring energy flow in molecules and materials with high spatial and temporal resolution.”
• , professor of astronomy, “for founding the and leading the decades-long development of the interdisciplinary modeling framework and community needed to establish the science of exoplanet astrobiology” and “for training the next generation of interdisciplinary scientists who will search for life beyond Earth.”
• , professor and chair of aeronautics and astronautics, “for leadership and significant advances in nonlinear methods for integrated sensing and control in engineered, bioinspired and biological flight systems” and “for leadership in cross-disciplinary aerospace workforce development.”
• , associate professor of chemistry and member faculty with the Molecular Engineering and Sciences Institute, “for exceptional contributions to the development of synthetic polymers and nanomaterials for self-assembly and advanced manufacturing with application in sustainability, medicine and microelectronics.”
• Dr. , Associate Dean of Medical Technology Innovation in the College of Engineering and the School of Medicine, the Graham and Brenda Siddall Endowed Chair in Cornea Research, and medical director of the UW Eye Institute, “for developing and providing first class clinical treatment of severe corneal blindness to hundreds of people, for establishing the world premier artificial cornea program in Washington, and for leading collaborative research to translate innovative engineering technologies into creative clinical solution.”
• Dr. , professor of medicine and director of the , “for global recognition as an authority on drug and vaccine development for viral and parasitic diseases through work as an infectious disease physician and immunologist.”
• Dr. , professor of pediatrics and of anesthesiology and pain medicine, and director of the , “for outstanding leadership in pediatric anesthesiology and in the care of children with traumatic brain injury” and “for internationally recognized expertise in traumatic brain injury and direction of the Harborview Injury Prevention and Research Center for the last decade as an exceptional mentor and visionary leader.”

UW members who will join the Washington State Academy of Sciences by virtue of their election to one of the National Academies are:

• , professor of biostatistics, “for the development of novel statistical models for longitudinal data to better diagnose disease, track its trajectory, and predict its outcomes” and “for revolutionizing how dynamic predictors are judged by their discrimination and calibration and has significantly advanced methods for randomized controlled trials.” Heagerty was elected to the National Academy of Medicine in 2021.
• , the Bill and Melinda Gates Chair in Computer Science and Engineering, “for foundational contributions to the mathematics of computer systems and of the internet, as well as to the design and probabilistic analysis of algorithms, especially on-line algorithms, and algorithmic mechanism design and game theory.” Karlin was elected to the National Academy of Sciences in 2021.
• , professor emeritus of applied mathematics and data science fellow at the , “for inventing key algorithms for hyperbolic conservation laws and transforming them into powerful numerical technologies” and “for creating the Clawpack package, which underpins a wide range of application codes in everyday use, such as for hazard assessment due to tsunamis and other geophysical phenomena.” LeVeque was elected to the National Academy of Sciences in 2021.
• , the Benjamin D. Hall Endowed Chair in Basic Life Sciences and an investigator with the Howard Hughes Medical Institute, “for advancing our physical understanding of cell motility and growth in animals and bacteria” and “for discovering how the pathogen Listeria uses actin polymerization to move inside human cells, how crawling animal cells coordinate actomyosin dynamics and the mechanical basis of size control and daughter cell separation in bacteria.” Theriot was elected to the National Academy of Sciences in 2021.
• , professor and chair of biological structure, “for elucidating cellular transformations through which neurons pattern their dendrites, and the interplay of activity-dependent and -independent mechanisms leading to assembly of stereotyped circuits” and “for revelations regarding the fundamental principles of neuronal development through the application of an elegant combination of in vivo imaging, physiology, ultrastructure and genetics to the vertebrate retina.” Wong was elected to the National Academy of Sciences in 2021.

New members to the Washington State Academy of Sciences are scheduled to be inducted at a meeting in September.

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The planet will warm by about 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century if the U.S. and other nations meet only their current commitments under the Paris climate agreement to reduce emissions of heat-trapping gases. According to a paper by U.S. and U.K. scientists , accelerating ambition to reduce global warming emissions to meet the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius could prevent thousands of extreme heat-related deaths in cities across the U.S.

This first-of-its-kind study — led by of the University of Bristol in the U.K. and co-authored by a team of researchers, including , professor and researcher at the ����Ӱ�Ӵ�ý’s School of Public Health, and , director of science and policy and chief climate scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists — examines the impact on mortality rates of projected high temperatures associated with extreme heat expected to occur once every 30 years on average in 15 U.S. cities: Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Detroit, Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, San Francisco, Seattle, St. Louis and Washington, D.C.

“Climate change is not only affecting faraway places but also the United States,” said Lo. “As temperatures rise, exposure of major U.S. cities to extreme heat will increase and more heat-related deaths will occur. The United States has emitted the largest amount of carbon dioxide in the world since the 18th��century. Immediate and drastic emissions cuts are key to preventing large increases in heat-related deaths in the country.”

Climate change is already increasing the severity of extreme heat. If global temperature increases reach 3 degrees Celsius, these cities would experience more severe heat waves than if temperature rise is limited to 1.5 or 2 degrees Celsius. The study used the different high temperatures projected under three warming scenarios for 1-in-30-year events in each city.

At 3 degrees Celsius, there would be between about 330 and 5,800 heat-related deaths per city for each 1-in-30-year event, with cities like Chicago, Los Angeles, Miami, New York and Philadelphia facing the highest number of fatalities. Limiting global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius avoids between about 70 and 1,980 extreme heat-related deaths per city. Even more heat related deaths — between about 110 and 2,720 — can be avoided by achieving the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold.

To view a spreadsheet highlighting the main findings for each U.S. city, .

for a graphic displaying the overall findings per city or for the per capita findings graphic.

“This study shows that taking urgent action to reduce carbon pollution will save lives in cities across the United States,” said Frumhoff. “The government also has an obligation to help communities prepare for life in a world that’s heating up. This could include making air conditioning more available especially to those with low or fixed incomes, strengthening our health care system, and increasing awareness of heat-related health risks.”

“All heat-related deaths are potentially preventable,” said Ebi. “We need urgent investment in heat wave early warning and response systems and other options to protect the most vulnerable as temperatures continue to rise. Older adults, children and outdoor workers are among those populations particularly susceptible to higher temperatures. In the long term, urban planning must prioritize design changes that decrease urban heat islands and ensure our infrastructure is prepared for unprecedented temperatures.”

The numbers of avoided heat-related deaths in the analysis may be a conservative estimate, as they rely on current population data. Therefore, they cannot account for an aging population, increases in urbanization, exacerbation of the urban heat island effect, or other demographic factors that could change and contribute to added heat vulnerability.

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For more information, contact Ebi at krisebi@uw.edu or 206-543-8440.

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