Cooperative Institute for Climate – UW News /news Wed, 05 Nov 2025 15:16:00 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 The chilling effect of air pollution /news/2025/11/05/the-chilling-effect-of-air-pollution/ Wed, 05 Nov 2025 15:16:00 +0000 /news/?p=89790 White streaks in the clouds above Earth show where ships have passed.
The streaks in this satellite image are from ships, which emit sulfate aerosols that can be toxic to humans and the environment. Aerosols also make the clouds more reflective. Efforts to curb pollution have reduced the amount of sunlight Earth reflects and accelerated warming, a new 天美影视传媒 study shows. Photo:

Earth is reflecting less sunlight, and absorbing more heat, than it did several decades ago. Global warming is advancing faster than climate models predicted, with observed temperatures exceeding projections in 2023 and 2024. These trends have scientists scrambling to understand why the atmosphere is letting more light in.

A new study, , shows that reducing air pollution has inadvertently diminished the brightness of marine clouds, which are key regulators of global temperature.

Between 2003 and 2022, clouds over the Northeastern Pacific and Atlantic oceans, both sites of rapid surface warming, became nearly 3% less reflective per decade. Researchers attribute approximately 70% of this change to aerosols 鈥 and influence both cloud cover and cloud composition.

When research emerged showing that some aerosols are harmful, efforts to limit particulate pollution 鈥 specifically targeting the products of fossil fuel combustion 鈥 followed. Aerosol levels will likely continue to fall as clean energy replaces oil and gas. To improve the accuracy of global temperature forecasts, scientists need to capture the true relationship between aerosols, clouds, and heat from the sun in climate models.

鈥淭his paper is a substantial contribution to the evidence that reductions in particulate air pollutants are contributing to accelerated warming.鈥 said , a principal research scientist at the UW Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean and Ecosystem Studies.

Aerosol particles form cloud droplets by attracting water vapor. Photo: Knut von Salzen/天美影视传媒

Researchers knew that low clouds over the ocean would dissipate as temperatures rose, exposing more surface area to warming sunlight and amplifying its effect. They also knew that particles in the atmosphere insulate Earth both by deflecting light and making the entire cloud more reflective.

The cooling effect from particulate pollution masked warming from greenhouse gases for decades. Accelerated warming was a potential consequence of improving air quality.

鈥淚t is clearly a good thing that we have been reducing particle pollution in the atmosphere,” Doherty said. 鈥淲e don鈥檛 want to go back in time and take away the Clean Air Act.鈥

, the Clean Air Act marked the first of many worldwide efforts to control pollution.

鈥淥ur goal is to understand what is driving current climate changes to estimate how much warming we will see in the future,鈥 Doherty added.

The Northeastern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans are warming faster than almost anywhere else on Earth, threatening and the . The researchers analyzed 20 years of satellite data documenting cloud dynamics above these bodies of water to identify the drivers behind the observed reduction in reflectivity.

They found that aerosols influence clouds in two ways. Small particles give water droplets something to cling to, and with a fixed amount of water, more aerosols means more small, shiny droplets in the clouds. By the same logic, reducing aerosols increases cloud droplet size. Large droplets are heavier, and quicker to fall to Earth as precipitation, which decreases the longevity of clouds, or cloud cover.

In the absence of aerosols, each cloud droplet carries more water but with aerosols, that water is dispersed between more droplets, impacting how reflective the cloud is and how long it lasts for. Photo: Robert Wood/天美影视传媒

鈥淲hen you cut pollution, you鈥檙e losing reflectivity and warming the system by allowing more solar radiation, or sunlight, to reach Earth,鈥 said lead author , a UW senior research scientist of atmospheric and climate science.

Updating aerosol formation and cloud droplet size in climate models improved simulations of cloud reflectivity 鈥 a critical variable for projecting future temperatures.

鈥淲e may be underestimating warming trends because this connection is stronger than we knew,鈥 von Salzen said. 鈥淚 think this increases the pressure on everyone to rethink climate mitigation and adaptation because warming is progressing faster than expected.鈥

While these changes to global cloud reflectivity have prompted rapid warming on Earth, scientists are researching the feasibility of interventions that could make the clouds shinier without polluting the air. One such intervention is known as marine cloud brightening, in which ships spray seawater into the air to make low-lying oceanic clouds more reflective and help minimize warming from the sun.

鈥淵ou could think of it as replacing unhealthy pollutant particles with another type of particle that is not a pollutant 鈥 but that still provides a beneficial cooling effect,鈥 said , a UW professor of atmospheric and climate science.

However, before they are implemented, more research is needed to confirm that these methods are safe and without unintended consequences. In the meantime, this study will help scientists better forecast the impacts of climate change at a global scale.

Additional co-authors include; at the University of Toronto; at Imperial College London; , , and at Environment and Climate Change Canada.

This study was funded by the 天美影视传媒 Marine Cloud Brightening Research Program, Environment and Climate Change Canada, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an Imperial College Junior Research Fellowship and a Royal Society University Research Fellowship.

For more information, contact von Salzen at kvsalzen@uw.edu, Doherty at sdoherty@uw.edu or Wood at robwood2@uw.edu.听

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Atlantic Ocean current expected to undergo limited weakening with climate change, study finds /news/2025/05/30/atlantic-ocean-current-expected-to-undergo-limited-weakening-with-climate-change-study-finds/ Fri, 30 May 2025 17:07:54 +0000 /news/?p=88219 Closeup of waves in the ocean
Contemporary climate models show wide variation in 21st century projections of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, weakening. This study aimed to reconcile these discrepancies. Photo: Pixabay

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, is a system of ocean currents that plays a crucial role in regulating Earth鈥檚 climate by transporting heat from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere. Confined to the Atlantic basin, the AMOC modulates regional weather 鈥 from mild summers in Europe to monsoon seasons in Africa and India.

Climate models have long predicted that global warming will cause the AMOC to weaken, with some projecting what amounts to a near-collapse relative to the AMOC strength in observations today. But a new study from a team of researchers that included the 天美影视传媒 shows that the AMOC is likely to weaken to a much lesser extent than current projections suggest. The study was published May 29 in .

A severe weakening would have far-reaching consequences, including changes in regional sea level rise, and major shifts in regional climate, such as colder conditions in northern Europe and drier weather in parts of the Amazon and West Africa.

鈥淥ur results imply that, rather than a substantial decline, the AMOC is more likely to experience a limited decline over the 21st century 鈥 still some weakening, but less drastic than previous projections suggest,鈥 says , lead author of the study and a UW postdoctoral research fellow in the .

The researchers developed a simplified physical model based on fundamental principles of ocean circulation 鈥 specifically, how sea water density differences and the depth of the overturning circulation are related 鈥 that also incorporates real-world measurements of the ocean current鈥檚 strength. The real-world data was collected over 20 years with monitoring arrays and other observations of the Atlantic basin.

Results show that the AMOC will weaken by around 18-43% by the end of the 21st century. While this represents some weakening, it鈥檚 not the near-collapse that more extreme climate model projections suggest.

Paleoclimate records, like ocean sediments that record past climate conditions, indicate that the AMOC experienced weakening in the past. One example is during the last ice age 20,000 years ago, which led to major swings in the climate that affected North America and Europe.

Contemporary climate models show wide variation in 21st century projections of AMOC weakening. This study aimed to reconcile these discrepancies by better understanding the physical mechanisms governing the AMOC behavior in climate models. Through this work, researchers shed light on a previously unexplained feature of climate models: the link between the present-day and future strength of the AMOC.

Climate models that simulate a stronger present-day AMOC tend to project greater weakening under climate change. Researchers found that this relationship stems from the depth of the AMOC. A stronger AMOC typically extends to greater depths and allows changes in surface water temperature and salinity properties 鈥 caused by global warming and freshwater input 鈥 to penetrate deeper into the ocean and drive greater weakening.

A climate model with a stronger and deeper AMOC is less resilient to surface changes and experiences proportionally more weakening than one with a shallower current. Climate models with a shallower present-day AMOC still show weakening under climate change, but to a lesser extent than those with a deeper present-day AMOC.

The researchers used the ocean observations to show that the real-world AMOC is relatively shallow when compared to most climate models. The results indicate that the AMOC will experience only limited weakening, even in the highest emissions scenarios. The study also suggests that much of the previous uncertainty and more extreme weakening projections stemmed from biases in how climate models simulate the ocean’s current state, particularly its density stratification.

鈥淭here is immense value in doing basic research,鈥 Bonan said. 鈥淚t can give us a better indication of what the future might look like, as our study shows.鈥

Bonan emphasized the need to examine higher-resolution climate models that also include more sophisticated processes. Higher-resolution models might offer deeper insights into AMOC behavior and improve projections of its future changes. The study provides a framework to interrogate and evaluate more sophisticated models.

, professor of atmospheric & climate science and oceanography at the UW, was a co-author.听 Other co-authors are Tapio Schneider and Andrew Thompson of the California Institute of Technology, Laure Zanna of New York University and Shantong Sun of Laoshan Laboratory in Qingdao, China. The study was funded by the National Science Foundation, the David and Lucile Packard Foundation and Schmidt Sciences LLC.

This story is adapted from a release by the California Institute of Technology.

For more information, contact Bonan at dbonan@uw.edu.

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Q&A: How rate of CO2 rise can affect a global ocean current /news/2025/01/27/qa-how-rate-of-co2-rise-can-affect-a-global-ocean-current/ Mon, 27 Jan 2025 21:52:18 +0000 /news/?p=87374 As we burn fossil fuels, the amount of carbon dioxide in Earth鈥檚 atmosphere is gradually rising, and with it, the planet鈥檚 average temperature. How fast the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide 鈥 and with it, the temperature 鈥 goes up matters for the ability of humans and ecosystems to adjust. A slower increase gives humans time to move away from low-lying areas and animals time to move to new habitats.

It turns out the rate of that increase matters for non-living systems, too. A recent 天美影视传媒 study looked at how a major current in the Atlantic Ocean that includes the Gulf Stream will respond to a doubling of carbon dioxide from preindustrial levels. The , published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, found that when carbon dioxide levels rise more gradually, they have less impact on the ocean circulation.

UW News sat down with author , a UW postdoctoral researcher in the , to learn more about her study.

Why did you choose to study how the rate of rising CO2 affects the climate system?

Camille Hankel: In my PhD, some of my work was on 鈥渃limate tipping points,鈥 which emerge from the hypothesis that there might be some sort of critical thresholds of warming or CO2 change that can lead to very abrupt and irreversible change in some parts of the climate system. Through that work, I got exposed to some literature on 鈥渞ate-induced tipping points,鈥 which is the idea that instead of crossing a critical level, that there could be some critical rates of CO2 change that are important for the climate system.

Specifically, I read this study that was looking at this idea in the context of the AMOC, the , which is this large-scale ocean circulation. That study was using what we call a box model 鈥 a simplified, mathematical representation of the ocean circulation. And I thought, hey, I can run these global models, which are much more realistic representations of the Earth鈥檚 climate, including ocean, atmosphere, land and sea ice, and test whether the rate of CO2 change really is that important.

illustration of globe with red and blue line through the oceans
The global ocean “conveyor belt” circulation, shown in part here as red and blue lines, circulates cooler seawater below the surface and warmer seawater at the surface throughout the world’s oceans. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is part of this system of global ocean currents. Photo:

What is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which includes the Gulf Stream ocean current, and why is it so important for Earth鈥檚 climate?

CH: It鈥檚 one of the large-scale, key features of the climate system. In particular, it transports a lot of heat from the low latitudes in the South Atlantic to the higher latitudes closer to the North Pole. So it delivers a lot of heat, primarily to Northern Europe. It also distributes nutrients around through this sort of sinking motion that characterizes the circulation 鈥 it draws the surface waters down into the deep ocean, and recirculates deep water up to the surface. It鈥檚 a big feature of the climate system, particularly in the North Atlantic, but also globally.

We鈥檝e heard about a potential slowdown of the Gulf Stream current that could affect European weather. This was dramatized (perhaps not accurately) in the 2004 disaster movie 鈥.鈥 Are we actually seeing a slowdown in Atlantic Ocean circulation?

CH: We have a pretty short observational record of the AMOC current, and it’s sparse. You have to imagine, this is a 3D circulation in the entire Atlantic basin, and we have a couple little slices of data in particular parts of the Atlantic. We are seeing a modest slowdown so far, but it’s a pretty noisy and uncertain observational record, so it’s hard to tell.

I would say, however, that slowdown seen in current observations would match the model predictions of future slowdowns. And we also see a pattern in temperature changes where, while the rest of the globe is warming right now as we increase CO2, there’s what people call a 鈥渨arming hole鈥 over the North Atlantic: We鈥檙e not seeing as much warming in that North Atlantic region compared to the rest of the globe. And it’s hard to conclusively attribute what’s causing it in the Earth’s climate, but the idea is that the modest slowdown of the AMOC that we’ve seen so far could be one contributing factor to that lack of warming we’re seeing in the North Atlantic.

So the observations suggest some slowdown, though much less dramatic than what was depicted in that movie.

Why is the AMOC expected to slow down under climate change?

CH: One way of thinking about what drives this major ocean current is differences in ocean density. You have this really important zone in the North Atlantic where the waters sink because the surface waters are heavier than the waters below. When you change CO2 levels, you do two things. You start to warm the ocean鈥檚 surface, and by melting glaciers as well as changing sea ice, you add freshwater to the surface of the otherwise salty ocean. Both warming and freshening reduce the density of that upper ocean water and potentially inhibit or disrupt that critical sinking motion.

There are other ways of looking at it, but the one I look at in the study is understanding how those density perturbations happen in a higher-CO2 climate and how they modulate the sensitivity to the rate of CO2 change that I find in the AMOC鈥檚 response to CO2.

Your study finds that if atmospheric carbon dioxide doubles from pre-industrial levels more slowly, there鈥檚 less slowdown in the Atlantic Ocean compared to if CO2 doubles more quickly. Is that because everything is happening more slowly?

CH: Yes, that鈥檚 part of it. The different parts of the climate system 鈥 the ocean, atmosphere, and ice 鈥 all have different response timescales to CO2 changes, meaning they respond to perturbations with different lag times. Then how these components of the climate interact with each other under slower or faster CO2 changes can look very different, and in this case influence the ocean circulation.

Specifically, I found what鈥檚 known as a positive feedback 鈥 a sort of self-amplifying cycle 鈥 that helps explain why the level of AMOC weakening depends on the rate of CO2 change. In this feedback cycle, the initial modest amount of AMOC slowdown leads to a reduction of heat transport into the Arctic, which in turn cools the region and leads to a temporary period of Arctic sea ice expansion. This sea ice expansion causes more ice to be exported to the North Atlantic, where it melts and adds freshwater to the ocean, causing the AMOC to slow down even more: hence the self-amplifying cycle. It turns out that this feedback cycle is more effective at amplifying AMOC weakening under more rapid CO2 changes than under gradual CO2 changes.

What is the importance of this work?

CH: We know about AMOC slowdowns 鈥 there’s a ton of work on that, and the mechanisms that drive such an AMOC slowdown. But what鈥檚 new is this sensitivity of circulation changes to the rate of CO2 increase, independent of the total change in concentration of CO2.

When we think about policy and basic science, we tend to focus a lot on how the level of global warming can impact the climate system. I’m trying to bring a new perspective by thinking about the rate of increase as a driver itself, that could have a lot of impacts.

You can imagine that if multiple different climates are possible for the same level of warming, then limiting us to 1.5 C or 2 C could have different meanings, right? I do think the most important thing for the climate system is always how much CO2 have you put into the atmosphere, but how quickly you got to that point clearly matters as well.

For more information, contact Hankel at crhankel@uw.edu.

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Beluga whales鈥 calls may get drowned out by shipping noise in Alaska鈥檚 Cook Inlet /news/2023/12/11/beluga-whales-calls-may-get-drowned-out-by-shipping-noise-in-alaskas-cook-inlet/ Mon, 11 Dec 2023 17:15:36 +0000 /news/?p=83847 pod of beluga whales with shoreline in background
Beluga whales photographed in August 2021 in Cook Inlet, Alaska. The population was most recently estimated at just 331 individuals. A first description of this population鈥檚 vocal repertoire shows that many of the most common calls are masked by shipping noise. Photo: Arial Brewer/天美影视传媒

are highly social and vocal marine mammals. They use acoustics to navigate, find prey, avoid predators and maintain group cohesion. For Alaska鈥檚 critically endangered population, these crucial communications may compete with a cacophony of noise from human activities.

New research from the 天美影视传媒, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration鈥檚 Alaska Fisheries Science Center and the Alaska Department of Fish and Game is the first to document the complex vocal repertoire of the Cook Inlet beluga whale population. It is also the first to quantify how ship noise may be masking specific beluga calls in this region.

The , published Nov. 30 in the Journal of the Acoustical Society of America, finds 41 distinct types of calls, of which 18 are unique to this population. It also finds that commercial ship noise completely masks these whales鈥 most commonly used calls.

鈥淭he core critical habitat for these whales is a very noisy area. Commercial shipping, an international airport, military operations and gas and oil exploration are all concentrated there,鈥 said lead author , a doctoral student in the at the UW who did the work in collaboration with NOAA Fisheries鈥 .

鈥淎 fundamental knowledge gap for the Cook Inlet beluga population is how they communicate important information. The first step is to describe their vocal repertoire,鈥 she added. 鈥淲ith that information, we can begin to understand if their communication is impacted by human-caused noise.鈥

map of long inlet with blue line through middle
Map of Cook Inlet, Alaska, with red pins where underwater recordings used for this study. Stripes show Cook Inlet beluga whale critical habitat, and the blue line shows designated Port of Alaska commercial shipping lanes. Photo: Kim Shelden/NOAA Fisheries

Twenty-one populations of belugas are recognized worldwide, including five distinct populations in Alaska. The geographically and genetically isolated Cook Inlet beluga population is the smallest, recently estimated at just . Cook Inlet beluga whales live exclusively in their namesake waters alongside Anchorage, the state鈥檚 largest city and busiest port.

The Cook Inlet beluga whale population was listed as endangered under the Endangered Species Act in 2008. A 2016 recovery plan ranked three threats as the highest level of concern, one being human-caused noise. Commercial shipping is the most prominent noise source within Cook Inlet, particularly in the upper inlet where most of the federally-designated critical habitat is located.

鈥滱ll of that human-caused noise means the belugas may not hear critical communications from each other, such as predator alarm calls or a mother calling to her calf,鈥 Brewer said.

While all whales are affected by noise, Cook Inlet belugas may be particularly vulnerable to noise as a stressor.

鈥淐ook Inlet is extremely turbid year-round from glacial runoff. It looks like chocolate milk,鈥 Brewer said. 鈥淎coustic communication is extremely important for this population since visibility is so poor. And, unlike other, higher-Arctic beluga populations, this population is non-migratory, so they are exposed to this noise year-round.鈥

two whales from above in brown water
Cook Inlet beluga mother and calf in turbid, or cloudy, waters. Photo: Paul Wade/NOAA Fisheries

Cook Inlet鈥檚 extreme turbidity, dramatic tides, rapid currents and seasonal ice cover make it an extremely challenging place to study belugas. One way scientists can monitor these highly vocal whales is through sound.

The Cook Inlet Beluga Acoustics Program has been deploying bottom-mounted passive acoustic recorders to monitor belugas and human-caused noise since 2008. The study focused on recordings of beluga whale calls from 2018 to 2019.

鈥淯ntil now, we did not have a quantified measure of masking by ship noise on Cook Inlet beluga communication. We knew this was a potential disturbance mechanism to focus our research efforts, but we were lacking a good understanding of what vocalizations are most important for beluga,鈥 said co-author , a research scientist at the UW-based Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean and Ecosystem Studies who manages the acoustics monitoring program. 鈥淭his study provides the first two steps into this direction: We now have a solid understanding of key vocalizations for this population, and how each ship transit is affecting beluga vocal exchange in the core area of their critical habitat.鈥

For the new study, scientists analyzed recordings at two critical habitat locations: Susitna River, just outside of Anchorage, and Trading Bay, farther out in the inlet.

They classified beluga vocalizations into three broad categories 鈥 whistles, pulsed calls and combined calls 鈥 and then further into 41 unique call types.

鈥淚鈥檝e spent thousands of hours listening to this population. Anytime I find a new call type, it鈥檚 really exciting,鈥 Brewer said, 鈥淓avesdropping on their world is really fascinating.鈥

The study found that the Cook Inlet beluga population, like other beluga populations, has a rich and complex repertoire. Vocal repertoire has been documented for eight of the 21 populations of belugas worldwide. Results from this study support the hypothesis that some call types are shared across populations, while others are unique.

Of the 41 types of calls the authors documented in the Cook Inlet population, 18 were not documented in any other population; 16 were documented in some but not all of the previously studied populations; and seven were common to all populations studied so far.

鈥淒ifferences in vocal repertoire among different beluga populations may be driven by unique evolutionary, environmental or cultural influences,鈥 Brewer said. 鈥淭he divergence of the Cook Inlet vocal repertoire may be in part due to the population鈥檚 long-term geographic and genetic isolation.鈥

The researchers next looked at how the most commonly-used call types may be masked by human-caused noise. They focused on commercial ship noise, which is the most prominent noise type in Cook Inlet.

Analysis found that all seven of the most commonly-used call types in the Cook Inlet beluga vocal repertoire were partially masked by the time a commercial ship was within about 10 miles (17 kilometers) of the study site. Calls were completely masked when the vessel was closest to the site during the transit through the designated shipping lanes.

Roughly 486 commercial ships use the Port of Alaska annually, with an average of 8-10 ships coming and going per week. It is estimated that each ship passage will mask beluga communication at the study site for 1 hour and 50 minutes on average.

鈥淥ur results suggest that every time a commercial vessel transits through the Port of Alaska shipping lanes, Cook Inlet beluga communication could be heavily impacted within their core habitat,鈥 Brewer said.

鈥淗umans are such a visual species. It鈥檚 hard for us to comprehend how noisy it is under the surface of the ocean and how much noise impacts marine mammals such as belugas. We hope our findings will lead to further studies to better inform management about these types of human-caused impacts.鈥

The research was funded by NOAA Fisheries, Hilcorp Alaska LLC, Georgia Aquarium, Shedd Aquarium, the SeaWorld-Busch Gardens Conservation Fund and the H. Mason Keeler Endowed Professorship in Sports Fisheries Management at the UW.

Other co-authors are faculty members and in the UW School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences; and Tom Gage at the Alaska Department of Fish and Game.

For more information, contact Brewer at arialb@uw.edu or Castellote at manuelcm@uw.edu.

Adapted from a NOAA .

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UW experts offer hot takes on El Ni帽o, weather and ocean temperatures /news/2023/10/25/uw-experts-offer-hot-takes-on-el-nino-weather-and-ocean-temperatures/ Wed, 25 Oct 2023 20:39:38 +0000 /news/?p=83325 map of global oceans with red spots in Pacific Ocean and Atlantic Ocean
September 2023 sea surface temperature difference from the 1985-1993 average. Much of the global oceans are warmer than average, and the Pacific is in an El Ni帽o pattern. Photo:

Ocean temperatures and their connections to weather trends have been making news. Five 天美影视传媒 experts offer their perspectives on the current El Ni帽o 鈥 a climate pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean that affects weather worldwide. UW researchers comment on the current El Ni帽o, its effect on weather in the Pacific Northwest, as well as on regional and global ocean temperature trends.

, a UW research scientist at the , comments on the developing El Ni帽o:

鈥溾 鈥 The Conversation

“This El Ni帽o has evolved in a really interesting way. Since spring, the dynamical models have very confidently predicted an El Ni帽o event. But while the key region of the tropical Pacific has warmed quickly, the typical atmospheric response has lagged. The atmosphere in the tropical Pacific is only now becoming more typical of an El Ni帽o event, although it is still not fully matching the ocean surface. That鈥檚 unusual, because the tropical ocean and atmosphere tend to evolve together.

“It will be interesting to see how this El Ni帽o continues to evolve over the next few months, which will help determine the extent of impacts on our upcoming winter weather. Remote impacts in places like Seattle tend to be stronger for stronger El Ni帽o events. While sea surface temperature has typically been the main measure, the impacts might very well depend more on the atmospheric response. So the evolution of the system over the next few months will be key to the eventual local impacts in places like Seattle.”

Dennis Hartmann, professor of atmospheric sciences at the UW, on El Ni帽o and its effects:

“The impact of El Ni帽o on the Pacific Northwest varies a lot from one event to the other, depending on the spatial structure and size of the sea surface temperature changes in the tropics, and on the state of the atmosphere between the tropics and the Pacific Northwest. For that reason, the predictions of Pacific Northwest impacts based upon El Ni帽o events that happened in the past are quite uncertain.

“In addition, the climate has warmed significantly in both the tropics and outside the tropics since some of the prior big El Ni帽o events, in the 1970s and 1980s. That may add an additional complication to making an accurate forecast of how this winter will be different because of the current El Ni帽o event.”

Nick Bond, a research scientist at CICOES and Washington鈥檚 state climatologist, on El Ni帽o and its effects on Washington鈥檚 weather:

鈥溾 鈥 The Seattle Times

“El Ni帽o conditions are present now in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and they are very likely to persist through the coming winter. The effects on Washington鈥檚 weather are expected to feature relatively warm, and perhaps drier, weather than usual after Jan. 1, and ultimately a lower-than-normal snowpack in our mountains at the end of winter. El Ni帽o’s impacts on the weather in Washington state tend to be more consistent in the middle to latter part of the winter.

“But this is not written in stone 鈥 there has been variability among past El Ni帽os in terms of effects on Washington鈥檚 winter weather.”

Jan Newton, senior principal oceanographer at the UW Applied Physics Laboratory and director of the UW-based , on what oceanographers are seeing in regional waters:

鈥溾 – KUOW

“Conditions off Washington鈥檚 outer coast have varied and are mainly influenced by changes in coastal upwelling and downwelling in the Pacific Ocean. Temperatures off the outer coast are now 4 degrees Fahrenheit (about 2 degrees Celsius) above normal, though variable.

“In Puget Sound, we鈥檙e starting to see surface water temperatures shift from cooler than normal, or normal, to consistently warmer than normal, but only by less than one degree Fahrenheit (half a degree Celsius). Given the large-scale warmth in the satellite-measured sea surface temperatures offshore, I do expect that we will continue to see warmer-than-normal sea temperatures in Puget Sound.听 However, it鈥檚 hard to predict if these differences from the average will stay small or will increase. What happens next will depend on ocean conditions and local weather.”

LuAnne Thompson, UW professor of oceanography, on the :

“The recent acceleration of ocean warming in the Atlantic is unprecedented in the historical record, and has created an Atlantic-wide marine heat wave. The ability of the ocean to absorb and store vast amounts of heat makes these types of events last longer. I study marine heat waves with a focus on their evolution in time and space. However, with more long-lasting, basin-wide events, such as the one we are seeing now in the Atlantic Ocean, we will need to reevaluate our approach.

“At a particular location, a marine heat wave occurs when the sea surface temperature is above a threshold, defined by what is typical for that time of year, and lasts for at least five days. However, with the global warming projected over coming decades, these dangerous hot water events will no longer be localized and of finite duration 鈥 they will no longer fit the traditional definition of marine heat waves. Instead, these marine heat wave events will become more persistent and widespread, and eventually will cover entire ocean basins.”

 

For more information, contact Levine at aflevine@uw.edu, Hartmann at dhartm@uw.edu, Bond at nab3met@uw.edu, Newton at janewton@uw.edu and Thompson at luanne@uw.edu.

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Faculty/staff honors: Student union association鈥檚 highest honor, supplier diversity award and more /news/2022/03/30/faculty-staff-honors-student-union-associations-highest-honor-supplier-diversity-award-and-more/ Wed, 30 Mar 2022 21:44:44 +0000 /news/?p=77795 Recent recognition of the 天美影视传媒 includes the Butts-Whiting Award for L. Lincoln Johnson, INSIGHT Into Diversity Magazine鈥檚 Jesse L. Moore 2022 Supplier Diversity Award, Ben Brunjes鈥 fellowship with the U.S. Small Business Administration’s Office of Policy Planning and Liaison, and the recognition of Yong Wei as an NOAA Ambassador of Tsunami Risk Assessment.

UW鈥檚 Lincoln Johnson receives student union association鈥檚 highest honor

Lincoln Johnson, associate vice president for student life at the UW, has been recognized with ACUI鈥檚 highest honor, the , for his significant contributions to the college union and student activities movement.

Lincoln Johnson

Founded in 1914, is a nonprofit educational organization that brings together college union and student activities professionals from hundreds of schools in seven countries.

Johnson has more than 30 years of senior leadership experience in higher education, working at small, large, public, private and faith-based institutions. He鈥檚 been an active volunteer with ACUI since 1995 and has been at the since 1996, where he first served as director of the Husky Union.

鈥淔or decades, Lincoln Johnson has continued to serve as a role model for our association and our campus communities,鈥 said ACUI Chief Executive Officer John Taylor. 鈥淗is willingness to participate, the energy he directs toward others to become involved, and his commitment to maintaining a culture of care on campuses are but a few of the attributes that have made his contributions so significant.鈥

Johnson received the award during a live ceremony at the Association鈥檚 2022 Annual Conference in Chicago. In making the announcement before a live audience, Dave Barnes, James Madison University director of University Unions and ACUI past president (2012鈥13), reflected on nominator statements in support of Johnson receiving the honor.

鈥淗e constantly reminded me of that difference that I and so many of my colleagues were making, making it clear that we were supported whole-heartedly,鈥 one student nominator wrote. 鈥淗e emphasized that our work, and more importantly, that we as individuals, mattered. It made all the difference.鈥

You can view Johnson鈥檚 acceptance speech .

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UW receives INSIGHT Into Diversity Magazine鈥檚 Jesse L. Moore 2022 Supplier Diversity Award

The UW received the from magazine, the oldest and only print diversity and inclusion publication in higher education.

The award is a national recognition honoring colleges and universities that take proactive steps to support and engage with minority-owned businesses through supplier diversity offices, unique programs and leading initiatives.

The UW was recognized for its , which supports the University鈥檚 commitment to diversity, equity and inclusion by encouraging the UW community to consider small, local and diverse businesses when sourcing and purchasing goods and services. It is comprised of a multi-disciplinary team, which includes Procurement Services, UW Facilities and the Foster School of Business Consulting and Business Development Center.

鈥淭he UW Business Diversity and Equity team is proud of its collective efforts to identify, utilize and grow small and diverse businesses,鈥 said Monica Acevedo-Soto, interim director for Facilities and Business Diversity at the UW. 鈥淪upplier diversity programs help communities and businesses thrive. Creating equity in business opportunities and diversity in our supplier base is integral to the UW鈥檚 values and exemplifies our commitment to making a positive social and economic impact in the community.鈥

The Business Diversity and Equity Program worked to raise awareness campuswide to the value of engaging with new and existing diverse businesses and providing opportunities for them to grow and thrive. Examples of collaborative efforts recognized by this award include student internships focusing on supplier diversity, a consulting and business development program offered to minority-owned small businesses, and inclusion goals for capital projects focused on minority-owned small businesses.

Winners will be announced in the April 2022 issue of INSIGHT Into Diversity magazine.

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Ben Brunjes begins fellowship with the U.S. Small Business Administration’s Office of Policy Planning and Liaison

, an assistant professor of public policy at the UW Evans School of Public Policy & Governance, this month will begin a fellowship with the U.S. Small Business Administration’s Office of Policy Planning and Liaison.

Ben Brunjes

The fellowship is designed to meet the Biden administration鈥檚 mandate for studies and recommendations to increase equity in federal procurement. The administration last December in order to better serve small businesses owned by women and people of color.

An expert in federal contracts and government procurement, Brunjes will advise SBA officials; help create and update federal procurement rules and regulations; identify and share new data on federal contracting; and study trends in and the performance of federal procurement equity programs. More specifically, the work includes studying disparities by location and type of industry among small businesses owned by women and people of color, and how to provide tools and incentives to improve contracting and potential community revitalization.

鈥淭he SBA’s equity programs help support growing businesses around the U.S. This fellowship will give me the chance to help improve access for small businesses,鈥 Brunjes said. 鈥淧rocurement equity programs are among the most successful social improvement policies in our country and making them work better will improve the lives of hard-working Americans in communities that need investment the most.

The fellowship runs through Sept. 15, alongside Brunjes鈥 current responsibilities in the Evans School.

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Yong Wei honored by NOAA as ‘Ambassador of Tsunami Risk Assessment’

, a senior research scientist at the UW-based , was recently honored by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration鈥檚 Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory as an 鈥淎mbassador of Tsunami Risk Assessment.鈥

Yong Wei

Wei is an expert in tsunami modeling, coastal flooding, and tsunami effects on structures in the U.S. and overseas. He is currently working on a multiyear NOAA project to assess tsunami hazards and develop 鈥淭sunami Design Zones鈥 for select overseas State Department facilities.

Wei helped developed probabilistic tsunami risk maps to update the American Society of Civil Engineers鈥 design standards, and applied these new design criteria in a UW鈥揘OAA project funded by the U.S. Navy and the National Institute of Building Science to . In the Pacific Northwest, Wei performed tsunami inundation modeling and debris tracking for the Oregon State University鈥檚 Gladys Valley Marine Studies Building in Newport, Oregon, which last year won an for its focus on coastal resilience.

 

 

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