Killer whales are intelligent, adaptive predators, often teaming up to take down larger whales as prey. Continuous reduction in sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is opening areas to increased killer whale dwelling and predation, potentially creating an ecological imbalance.

Underwater microphones placed off the western and northern coasts of Alaska show that killer whales have spent more time than previously recorded in the Arctic, following the decrease in summer sea ice. Brynn Kimber, a researcher from the Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean and Ecosystem Studies, the study, “Tracking killer whale movements in the Alaskan Arctic relative to a loss of sea ice,” Dec. 2 in Seattle at a meeting of the Acoustical Society of America.

Killer whales will often travel to different areas to target varieties of prey. In the analysis of acoustic data recorded by four underwater microphones from 2012 to 2019, the Seattle-based team found that killer whales are spending longer in the Arctic Ocean in more recent years, despite risks of ice entrapment there. Their readings indicate this change is directly following the decrease in sea ice in the area.

“It’s not necessarily that killer whales haven’t been reported in these areas before, but that they appear to be remaining in the area for longer periods of time,” said Kimber. “This is likely in response to a longer open-water season.”

The study didn鈥檛 set out to focus on the killer whales, or orcas, said Kimber, who was surprised by the results.

鈥淥ur work mostly centers on examining the migration patterns of species through the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort seas, based on acoustic presence or absence. But when looking for other species, like beluga whales, I noticed more and more killer whales in areas where I didn鈥檛 expect them. That was what motivated me to take a closer look at our killer whale detections.鈥�

The reduction in sea ice may be opening new hunting opportunities for killer whales, if certain species of prey can no longer use the ice to avoid the highly adaptive predator. For example, the endangered bowhead whale is vulnerable to predation by killer whales, but can hide under sea ice to avoid being circled by orcas. Last fall, another study led by a different CICOES researcher showed the in the Arctic.

This vulnerability, Kimber said, is likely to increase due to longer open-water seasons.

“Although there is high spatial and interannual variability, the September Arctic sea-ice minimum is declining at an average rate of 13% per decade when compared to values from 1981 to 2010,” Kimber said. “Killer whales are being observed in the Chukchi Sea (in the Arctic Ocean) in months that were historically ice covered, and more consistently throughout the summer.”

This study was funded by NOAA, the U.S. Navy and the Interior Department鈥檚 Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. Collaborators are , a former UW master鈥檚 student who is now at CICOES; at CICOES; and at NOAA.

For more information, contact Kimber at brynn.kimber@noaa.gov.

Adapted from an Acoustical Society of America

New research on the Pacific Northwest portion of the Dungeness crab fishery, which spans the West Coast of the U.S. and Canada, projects how this crustacean will fare under climate change.

Results show that by the end of this century, lower-oxygen water will pose the biggest threat. And while these crabs start as tiny, free-floating larvae, it鈥檚 the sharp-clawed adults that will be most vulnerable, specifically to lower-oxygen coastal waters in summer.

The open-access from researchers at the 天美影视传媒, the University of Connecticut and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will be in the December issue of AGU Advances, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.

鈥淚ncluding all life stages allowed us to identify a critical life stage, and thus make a management recommendation,鈥� said co-author at the University of Connecticut, who began the study while at the UW. 鈥淟ooking seasonally, instead of annually, gives different 鈥� and more severe 鈥� vulnerability estimates.鈥�

Dungeness crab is the largest single-species fishery in the Northwestern U.S. Washington鈥檚 Dungeness Crab Festival takes place in October near the Dungeness Cove that gives the species its name, and the crustacean is a favorite of Pacific Northwest holiday meals and in traditional diets. The study was designed in consultation with the Hoh, Makah, Quileute and Quinault Indian Nation tribes, whose members harvest, study and eat Dungeness crab on Washington鈥檚 Olympic Peninsula.

The researchers used a detailed computer model of ocean conditions to simulate the shifting properties of the water the crabs inhabit. Using a scenario of high carbon emissions through 2100, the model looks at how heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere will make the ocean warmer, carbon dioxide transferred from the air will make the surface waters more acidic, and warmer water will hold less dissolved oxygen.

Previous research has shown that the Dungeness crab is vulnerable to climate change. Those studies focused on changes in ocean pH, while the new paper includes multiple ocean properties and uses a model that is more detailed in space and time.

Time and place are both important. Crabs mate in spring and females produce eggs in late fall. Eggs begin to hatch in January and release larvae, which float in the offshore currents while growing, shedding and regrowing their shells five times. In summer the fully developed larvae come back closer to shore and molt, becoming juvenile crabs that scamper on the ocean floor.

The authors used an ocean model to study the consequences of climate stressors at different times throughout the Dungeness crab鈥檚 life stages 鈥� from eggs, to larvae, to juveniles, to adults.

鈥淲e found that for all three stressors there will be increased population-level vulnerability, and the most severe is to low oxygen levels,鈥� said first author , a doctoral student at the University of Connecticut. 鈥淟ow-oxygen events happen during the coastal upwelling season in spring and summer, which impacts the adults, whereas ocean acidification manifests more year-round in the future, impacting all life stages but less severely.鈥�

Lab studies of Dungeness crab combined with model results suggest that the most severe effects will be lower dissolved oxygen along the coastal seafloor in summer, harming the adults. This is unlike other species, such as shellfish, which are thought to be most vulnerable in the larval stage.

Like other animals, crabs breathe oxygen. Warmer water holds less gas, so even if marine life can handle the higher temperature and acidity, the drop in oxygen may lower the chance for survival.

鈥淭he value of this down-scaled model is that it can help tribes and state agencies to focus their efforts in both space and time,鈥� said co-author , an oceanographer at the UW Applied Physics Laboratory and co-director of the . 鈥淭his information is very pertinent to resource managers.鈥�

The researchers say these results could be incorporated into decision-making as ocean conditions change.

鈥淎n example would be monitoring low-oxygen events in the summer, and maybe pulling the crab traps earlier,鈥� Berger said. 鈥淭his would help mitigate from the crabs dying in the trap.鈥�

Further research on the Dungeness crab should include more lab studies on how the species responds to multiple stressors. More generally, authors say, the study shows a way to understand how marine species with complex life stages will respond to climate change.

Other co-authors are and at the UW-based Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean and Ecosystem Studies; and at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; and at the University of Connecticut.

The research was funded by NOAA and was part of a regional vulnerability assessment for the Olympic Coast to ocean acidification.

For more information, contact Siedlecki at samantha.siedlecki@uconn.edu, Newton at janewton@uw.edu and Berger at halle.berger@uconn.edu.

NOAA grant: NA17OAR0170166

Part of this text was adapted from a by the University of Connecticut.

Firefighters have reported that Western wildfires are starting earlier in the morning and dying down later at night, hampering their ability to recover and regroup before the next day鈥檚 flareup.

A study by 天美影视传媒 and U.S. Forest Service scientists shows why: The drying power of nighttime air over much of the Western U.S. has increased dramatically in the past 40 years. The was published online in July in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.

鈥淣ighttime is an important time in fire management. When fires die down at night it gives firefighters a chance to rest, move equipment and strategize. The problem firefighters are reporting is an unexpected increase in nighttime fire activity,鈥� said lead author , a UW research scientist at the Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean & Ecosystem Studies, a joint center with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 鈥淥ur findings support that this has been going on over the last 40 years over much, but not all, of the Western U.S.鈥�

Earth鈥檚 atmosphere is warming due to climate change, and warming in many places has been greater at night. Warmer night air had been suspected as the culprit , with burns continuing later into the night.

The new study, however, shows it鈥檚 not just that the night air is warmer, but also a dramatic shift from 1980 to 2019 in its drying power 鈥� how much moisture the nighttime air can carry away from the fuels 鈥� over much of the Western U.S. This shift is not captured in climate models, and the authors say it could be related to natural long-term cycles rather than to climate change.

鈥淲e paid special attention to the change in recent years compared to the conditions seen in the 鈥�80s and 鈥�90s, which is when many of the current firefighters started their careers, and presumably formed their ideas about what normal fire behavior should look like,鈥� Chiodi said. 鈥淲e tried to quantify the changes that we were hearing about from firefighters.鈥�

The study looks at the 鈥渧apor pressure deficit,鈥� or the difference between the moisture in the air and the saturation moisture level at that air temperature. This difference is a measure of the air鈥檚 drying power.

鈥淚n the southern Sierra Nevada, the average summer nighttime vapor pressure deficit for the recent decade was 50% higher than the average in the 鈥�80s and 鈥�90s,鈥� Chiodi said. 鈥淚 was surprised 鈥� it鈥檚 unusual to see geophysical data change that dramatically.鈥�

Some of this shift in vapor pressure deficit is happening because warmer nighttime air, caused by climate change, produce higher saturation values. But part of the drying power is happening because the nighttime air in some regions has less moisture, and that effect is not predicted by climate change models, at least this much or in this pattern. The authors find a possible connection to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a long-term cycle that can influence inland weather.

The increased drying power of nighttime air is especially pronounced in California鈥檚 San Joaquin Valley and in the Bitterroot-Blue Mountain Region 鈥� including parts of the Idaho Panhandle, southeast Washington, northeast Oregon and western Montana.

鈥淔irefighters had been saying for several years that they feel some fires burn later into the evening than they used to,鈥� said co-author at the U.S. Forest Service鈥檚 Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Laboratory. 鈥淲e found that in some areas, the amount of water in the air is decreasing, sort of doubling up on the warmer nights. These areas, including where the Snake River Complex and Lick Creek fires are burning right now, are much more likely to have fires burn late into the night.鈥�

The analysis used hourly weather outputs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The recently released hourly reconstructions of historical weather allowed investigation of daily cycles.

The next step, Chiodi said, is to further explore the causes of these changes in nighttime vapor pressure deficit. After that, he hopes to connect the atmospheric conditions more directly to fuel moisture and fire behavior.

The other co-author is at the U.S. Forest Service鈥檚 Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Laboratory in Seattle. The research was funded by the U.S. Forest Service through its research team and by NOAA.

###

For more information contact Chiodi at chiodi@uw.edu or Potter at brian.potter@usda.gov.

Conditions in the tropical ocean affect weather patterns worldwide. The most well-known examples are El Ni帽o or La Ni帽a events, but scientists believe other key elements of the tropical climate remain undiscovered.

In a recently published in Geophysical Research Letters, scientists from the 天美影视传媒 and NOAA鈥檚 Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory use remotely-piloted sailboats to gather data on , or pockets of cooler air that form below tropical storm clouds.

鈥淎tmospheric cold pools are cold air masses that flow outward beneath intense thunderstorms and alter the surrounding environment,鈥� said lead author , a postdoctoral researcher at the Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean and Ecosystem Studies. 鈥淭hey are a key source of variability in surface temperature, wind and moisture over the ocean.鈥�

The paper is one of the first tropical Pacific studies to rely on data from Saildrones, wind-propelled sailing drones with a tall, hard wing and solar-powered scientific instruments. Co-authors on the NOAA-funded study are at CICOES and at NOAA.

Atmospheric cold pools produce dramatic changes in air temperature and wind speed near the surface of the tropical ocean. The pockets of cooler air form when rain evaporates below thunderstorm clouds. These relatively dense air masses, ranging between 6 to 125 miles (10 to 200 kilometers) across, lead to downdrafts that, upon hitting the ocean surface, produce temperature fronts and strong winds that affect their surroundings. How this affects the larger atmospheric circulation is unclear.

鈥淩esults from previous studies suggest that cold pools are important for triggering and organizing storm activity over tropical ocean regions,鈥� Wills said.

To understand the possible role of cold pools in larger tropical climate cycles, scientists need detailed measurements of these events, but it is hard to witness an event as it happens. The new study used uncrewed surface vehicles, or USVs, to observe the phenomena.

Over three multi-month missions between 2017 and 2019, 10 USVs covered over 85,000 miles (137,000 kilometers) and made measurements of more than 300 cold pool events, defined as temperature drops of at least 1.5 degrees Celsius in 10 minutes. In one case, a fleet of four vehicles separated by several miles captured the minute-by-minute evolution of an event and revealed how the cold pool propagated across the region.

鈥淭his technology is exciting as it allows us to collect observations over hard-to-reach, under-sampled ocean regions for extended periods of time,鈥� Wills said.

The paper includes observations of air temperature, wind speed, humidity, air pressure, sea surface temperature and ocean salinity during cold pool events. The authors use the data to better describe these phenomena, including how much and how quickly air temperatures drops, how long it takes the wind to reach peak speeds, and how sea surface temperature changes nearby. Results can be used to evaluate mathematical models of tropical convection and explore more questions, like how the gusts created by the temperature difference affect the transfer of heat between the air and ocean.

For more information, contact Wills at smwills@uw.edu. Parts of this post were adapted from an in AGU Eos.

Freshwater is accumulating in the Arctic Ocean. The Beaufort Sea, which is the largest Arctic Ocean freshwater reservoir, has increased its freshwater content by 40% over the past two decades. How and where this water will flow into the Atlantic Ocean is important for local and global ocean conditions.

A study from the 天美影视传媒, Los Alamos National Laboratory and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows that this freshwater travels through the Canadian Archipelago to reach the Labrador Sea, rather than through the wider marine passageways that connect to seas in Northern Europe. The was published Feb. 23 in Nature Communications.

鈥淭he Canadian Archipelago is a major conduit between the Arctic and the North Atlantic,鈥� said lead author , a UW postdoctoral researcher at the Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean and Ecosystem Studies. 鈥淚n the future, if the winds get weaker and the freshwater gets released, there is a potential for this high amount of water to have a big influence in the Labrador Sea region.鈥�

The finding has implications for the Labrador Sea marine environment, since Arctic water tends to be fresher but also rich in nutrients. This pathway also affects larger oceanic currents, namely a conveyor-belt circulation in the Atlantic Ocean in which colder, heavier water sinks in the North Atlantic and comes back along the surface as the Gulf Stream. Fresher, lighter water entering the Labrador Sea could slow that overturning circulation.

鈥淲e know that the Arctic Ocean has one of the biggest climate change signals,鈥� said co-author at the UW-based Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean and Atmosphere Studies. 鈥淩ight now this freshwater is still trapped in the Arctic. But once it gets out, it can have a very large impact.鈥�

Fresher water reaches the Arctic Ocean through rain, snow, rivers, inflows from the relatively fresher Pacific Ocean, as well as the recent melting of Arctic Ocean sea ice. Fresher, lighter water floats at the top, and clockwise winds in the Beaufort Sea push that lighter water together to create a dome.

When those winds relax, the dome will flatten and the freshwater gets released into the North Atlantic.

鈥淧eople have already spent a lot of time studying why the Beaufort Sea freshwater has gotten so high in the past few decades,鈥� said Zhang, who began the work at Los Alamos National Laboratory. 鈥淏ut they rarely care where the freshwater goes, and we think that鈥檚 a much more important problem.鈥�

Using a technique Zhang developed to track ocean salinity, the researchers simulated the ocean circulation and followed the Beaufort Sea freshwater鈥檚 spread in a past event that occurred from 1983 to 1995.

Their experiment showed that most of the freshwater reached the Labrador Sea through the Canadian Archipelago, a complex set of narrow passages between Canada and Greenland. This region is poorly studied and was thought to be less important for freshwater flow than the much wider Fram Strait, which connects to the Northern European seas.

In the model, the 1983-1995 freshwater release traveled mostly along the North American route and significantly reduced the salinities in the Labrador Sea 鈥� a freshening of 0.2 parts per thousand on its shallower western edge, off the coast of Newfoundland and Labrador, and of 0.4 parts per thousand inside the Labrador Current.

The volume of freshwater now in the Beaufort Sea is about twice the size of the case studied, at more than 23,300 cubic kilometers, or more than 5,500 cubic miles. This volume of freshwater released into the North Atlantic could have significant effects. The exact impact is unknown. The study focused on past events, and current research is looking at where today鈥檚 freshwater buildup might end up and what changes it could trigger.

鈥淎 freshwater release of this size into the subpolar North Atlantic could impact a critical circulation pattern, called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which has a significant influence on Northern Hemisphere climate,鈥� said co-author at Los Alamos National Lab.

This research was funded by the Department of Energy, the National Science Foundation, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and NOAA. Other authors are at the UW Applied Physics Laboratory and and at Los Alamos National Lab.

For more information, contact Zhang at jiaxuzh@uw.edu.

Headed into her final year of law school, Mary Ruffin had planned to spend the summer at a private law firm, where she had secured an internship 鈥� a near rite of passage, among law students, to future employment.

But the internship, for college students in so many industries, was put on hold, the victim of the COVID-19 economy that has left millions out of work nationwide.

Yet Ruffin was undeterred, and she started reaching out to fellow students, faculty, alumni and attorneys to see what might be available 鈥� any kind of legal research or project to keep her skills sharp and her resume competitive.

In the meantime, faculty and administrators with the 天美影视传媒 School of Law were working with local law firms to find solutions for the dozens of students in need of the professional development experience that defines the summers between years of law school and often leads to a full-time job. Together, they came up with the COVID-19 Clearinghouse, a collection of short-term, remote, pro bono projects for private firms and nonprofits that mainly address legal questions specific to life during the pandemic. And through the Clearinghouse, Ruffin received her first assignment for a client: researching employment laws for essential workers and their families.

鈥淎 lot of students go into law school because law can have a profound impact on people鈥檚 lives,鈥� Ruffin said. 鈥淭his seemed like a really good use of our time, when things are constantly changing, and it鈥檚 good for students to get involved and feel like we鈥檙e part of a community.鈥�

The COVID-19 Clearinghouse is just one of the ways that faculty and staff across the UW have revamped summer research internships and worked with outside partners and employers to involve students in a remote working environment, even for jobs that would normally be out in the field.

Bringing the outside in

Transforming what are usually outdoor or in-the-lab tasks has required creativity. Just ask almost anyone in the College of the Environment.

The Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean鈥檚 nine-week research internship program accepts about a dozen undergraduates from around the country. Students are paired with a project that鈥檚 meant to match their interests, either on the UW campus with a faculty member, or at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration offices in Seattle. The cohort is housed in UW residence halls, participates in regular activities and goes on the occasional field trip.

Not this year. All 10 interns will work remotely, some on projects that were reconfigured to be online, and a few who agreed to take a remote project that was completely different from what program administrator Jed Thompson would have offered, pre-pandemic.

Gone, for example, is any assignment involving the always-popular 鈥渟hip time.鈥� But time on the computer provides valuable skills, too, useful for oceanography and so many other science fields.

Both and , faculty in the School of Oceanography, have converted internships that would otherwise have been out on the water or inside in the lab. Instead of examining zooplankton for Keister or using mass spectrometers to measure metals in water for Bundy, the interns will analyze data from previously obtained samples, learning new computer programs and other means of identification and measurement.

Elsewhere in the College of the Environment, Washington Sea Grant鈥檚 science communication fellow would normally spend much of their time bringing safety and water-quality messages directly to the people 鈥� literally, surveying boaters, promoting education at festivals and sharing materials at docks and marinas. But until lockdown restrictions loosen significantly, assistant director for communications MaryAnn Wagner said, the fellowship is steering toward writing and social media: from press releases about marine debris disposal and pump-out stations, to tweets of recipes and sea-life trivia.

Adapting alongside employers

Many internships and practicum experiences rely on other partners and agencies. And as the reality of the pandemic and remote working arrangements became clear, UW faculty and staff started contacting their usual job sites to determine what, if anything, could be modified.

The Program on the Environment requires its environmental studies majors to complete a year-long capstone project that includes a winter or summer field component, pairing students with outside organizations such as the Environmental Protection Agency and King County, said , a senior lecturer and the program鈥檚 capstone instructor. But ahead of the summer, some of the smaller nonprofit partners tightened their budgets, leaving some job sites unavailable.

鈥淎 huge selling point is that we embed students in these organizations, and largely, all that has disappeared,鈥� McDonald said.

About one-third of students decided to postpone to a later quarter, while the remaining 21 students are pressing on with a summer assignment, albeit a remote one. The program鈥檚 job fair proceeded via Zoom, with students 鈥渕eeting鈥� prospective employers in breakout rooms.

In the School of Public Health鈥檚 dietetic program, graduate students are training to become registered dietitians, primarily destined for hospitals, clinics and public health settings. Students complete seven rotations, including at least one stint in a health care facility, and one stint in a concentration area such as public policy, school nutrition or public health practice.

But during the pandemic, the placements in health care settings are in flux, and program director has been working on ways to provide students the experiences they need to graduate this summer. For some students, this meant completing a second public health rotation and delaying the start of clinical work. An entire cohort of dietitian students, nationwide, is in the same boat, she said.

鈥淥ur dietetic program has taken an individualized approach to meet students鈥� educational and career goals,鈥� Lund said. 鈥淲e鈥檙e doing everything we can but there are still gaps in their experiences due to the pandemic. It鈥檚 a system-level problem, and the system needs to recognize that and respond with post-credentialing training opportunities.鈥�

Partnering around the pandemic

The quest to secure employment after law school begins early: The summer between the first and second years is the 鈥渞esume-building鈥� internship that leads to the more career-focused second summer, when a successful experience at a firm or organization often ensures a job there after graduation.

Establishing the COVID-19 Clearinghouse was a collective effort, led by UW Law administrators and faculty, in consultation with alumni, retired attorneys, the Washington State Bar Association and several local firms, primarily Foster Garvey in Seattle. The pandemic had begun to generate many legal questions, and with the disappearance of so many paid jobs for law students, was there a way to address some of these issues, provide pro bono legal services to communities in need, and give students some of the experiences and skills practice they might get in a summer internship?

鈥淭here is a confluence of community need and student need,鈥� said professor , UW Law鈥檚 associate dean for experiential education, who collaboratively oversees the Clearinghouse with , co-chair of Foster Garvey鈥檚 pro bono committee. 鈥淲e鈥檙e trying to take an otherwise challenging experience for students and turn it into a learning experience that builds their skills and enhances their future job prospects.鈥�

The Clearinghouse matches students with supervising pro bono attorneys to tackle COVID-19 research projects that qualified legal service providers don鈥檛 have the capacity to undertake.聽 The matching is coordinated through a series of Google surveys: one for legal service providers to submit questions and projects they want students to address; another for attorneys who want to volunteer their time to student teams; a third for students to indicate their areas of interest.聽 To date, 66 UW law students have volunteered their time and skills.

The law schools at Seattle University and Gonzaga University joined the effort, and now there are 14 active projects involving dozens of students, many from the UW.

Mary Ruffin鈥檚 assignment with Foster Garvey is one of the projects that have concluded. Under the supervision of attorney Mikaela Louie, a UW Law alum, Ruffin and students Ysabel Mullarky and Dailey Koga tackled the employment rights of essential workers who live with people at high risk of the COVID-19 infection. The final product was a memo for the client, the Northwest Justice Project, to use in counseling people in need of legal advice.

As society adjusts to the new normal of the pandemic, these opportunities for community engagement can continue, said Damon-Feng, who was key to facilitating the Clearinghouse and creating a list of project needs.

鈥淢oving forward, when students may not be getting the employment experiences they need, we hope that we can get them experiences and skills training through the Clearinghouse,鈥� Damon-Feng said.聽鈥淭he Clearinghouse is also helping to meet increased need from the nonprofit and legal services community. And from the law firm side, we want to contribute to these efforts and get more people involved in this work.鈥�

UW Law faculty have developed a summer course, too: 鈥淟awyering in the Time of COVID-19,鈥� designed to provide students with a substantive overview of big-picture issues, as well as skill development. The course will be taught in modules related to legal issues central to the pandemic, such as immigration and detention, unemployment, criminal justice and detention, and small-business issues. The second half of the course will pair students with local practitioners to work on a project or case in their area of expertise. Whether through opportunities with the Clearinghouse, or in the classroom, faculty say, students have a chance to learn about the law as it relates to an unprecedented event.

It鈥檚 not the summer experience that students expected, said , the law school鈥檚 interim assistant dean for student and career services. But a can-do attitude can help.

“Students gain key legal skills through a variety of experiences, and students should remember to stay focused on continuing to learn, even if their summers don’t look how they hoped. Remember — this is just one small time in your very long career,鈥� she said.

The new regional consortium will include faculty and staff at the UW, the University of Alaska Fairbanks and Oregon State University. Members will contribute expertise, research capacity, technological development, help train the next generation of NOAA scientists, and conduct public education and outreach.

The selection comes with an award of up to $300 million over five years, with the potential for renewal for another five years based on successful performance.

The purpose of the cooperative institute is to facilitate and conduct collaborative, multidisciplinary research to support NOAA鈥檚 mission; educate and prepare the next generation of scientists to be technically skilled, environmentally literate and reflect the national diversity; and engage and educate the citizenry of the Pacific Northwest, Alaska and the nation about human-caused impacts on ecosystem health and socioeconomic sustainability.

The new cooperative institute will address some of the major research themes that have been the focus of NOAA鈥檚 previous cooperative institute hosted by UW, the , including climate and ocean changes and impacts, and will expand to include new research areas and involve additional universities.

鈥淲e鈥檙e excited to build on JISAO鈥檚 research and education traditions through our regional research consortium,鈥� said director , professor in the UW School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences. 鈥淭he expanded research and education portfolios will enable us to better serve NOAA鈥檚 mission.鈥�

The center鈥檚 members will work alongside scientists at NOAA鈥檚 Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, NOAA Fisheries Alaska Fisheries Science Center and Northwest Fisheries Science Center, all based in Seattle.

鈥淭he challenges we face related to climate, oceans, and coastal ecosystems require ongoing collaboration that crosses sectoral, disciplinary and geographic boundaries,鈥� said , Dean of the College of the Environment and Mary Laird Wood Professor at UW. 鈥淭his ongoing partnership with NOAA, UAF and OSU allows us to collaborate at a scale that we have never seen before in the Pacific Northwest. NOAA鈥檚 investment leverages our incredible federal and university resources to understand and confront problems that no one institution could tackle alone.鈥�

鈥淭his is a big win for the 天美影视传媒,鈥� said U.S. Senator Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.). 鈥淪ince 1977, the UW has known what we all know now: that a healthy environment supports a robust ocean economy. Now, at a time when research dollars are critical, NOAA is nearly tripling its investment in the world-class ocean science conducted at the UW. The聽new Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies will expand on the UW鈥檚 legacy of success by conducting new research into the impacts of climate and ocean variability, environmental chemistry and ocean carbon, and changing marine ecosystems.鈥�

鈥淭he selection of UW to lead NOAA鈥檚 new Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies is great news for our region as we work to combat climate change,鈥� added Rep. Derek Kilmer, D-Port Angeles. 鈥淲ith our communities on the front lines of the climate crisis, having more federal dollars invested in Washington state and more expertise at our research institutions will help our entire region take steps to mitigate the impacts, build more resilient communities, and continue to lead the way.鈥�

NOAA supports 17 cooperative institutes consisting of 57 universities and research institutions in 23 states and the District of Columbia. These research institutions provide educational programs that promote student and postdoctoral scientist involvement in NOAA-funded research.

鈥淲e are pleased to announce that the 天美影视传媒 will host our new Cooperative聽 Institute for Climate, Ocean and Ecosystem Studies,鈥� said Craig McLean, assistant NOAA administrator for Oceanic and Atmospheric Research. 鈥淭his institute will help NOAA achieve our mission to better the ocean and atmosphere, which depends on research, data and information to make sound decisions for healthy ecosystems, communities and a strong blue economy.鈥�

For more information, contact Horne at jhorne@uw.edu or 206-221-6890; Jed Thompson, JISAO communications, at jedthom@uw.edu; and Monica Allen, NOAA Communications, at 202-379-6693 or monica.allen@noaa.gov.

Our knowledge of the dwindling sea ice coverage in the Arctic Ocean comes mostly through satellites, which since 1979 have imaged the sea ice from above. The 天美影视传媒’s Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean and Modeling System, or , is a leading tool for gauging the thickness of that ice. Until now that system has gone back only as far as 1979.

A now extends the estimate of Arctic sea ice volume back more than a century, to 1901. To do so it used both modern-day computer simulations and historic observations, some written by hand in the early 1900s aboard precursors to today’s U.S. Coast Guard ships.

“This extends the record of sea ice thickness variability from 40 years to 110 years, which allows us to put more recent variability and ice loss in perspective,” said , a sea ice scientist at the UW’s Applied Physics Laboratory and first author of the study published in the August issue of the Journal of Climate.

“The volume of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean today and the current rate of loss are unprecedented in the 110-year record,” he added.

PIOMAS provides a daily reconstruction of what鈥檚 happening to the total volume of sea ice across the Arctic Ocean. It combines weather records and satellite images of ice coverage to compute ice volume. It then verifies its results against any existing thickness observations. For years after 1950, that might be fixed instruments, direct measurements or submarines that cruise below the ice.

During the early 20^th century, the rare direct observations of sea ice were done by U.S. Revenue cutters, the precursor to the Coast Guard, and Navy ships that have cruised through the Arctic each year since 1879. In the project, the UW, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Archives have been working with citizen scientists to to recover unique climate records for science. The new study is the first to use the logbooks’ observations of sea ice.

“In the logbooks, officers always describe the operating conditions that they were in, providing hourly observations of the sea ice at that time and place,” said co-author , a researcher at the . If the ship was in open water, the logbook might read “steaming full ahead” or “underway.” When the ship encountered ice, officers might write “steering various courses and speeds” meaning the ship was sailing through a field of ice floes. When they found themselves trapped in the ice pack, the log might read “beset.”

These logbooks until recently could only be viewed at the National Archives in Washington, D.C., but through digital imaging and transcription by Old Weather citizen-scientists these rare observations of weather and sea ice conditions in the Arctic in the late 1800s and early 1900s have been made available to scientists and the public.

“These are unique historic observations that can help us to understand the rapid changes that are taking place in the Arctic today,” Wood said.

Wood leads the U.S. portion of the Old Weather project, which originated in 2010 in the U.K. The weather observations from historic logbooks transcribed by Old Weather citizen scientists have already been added to international databases of climate data and were used in the model of the atmosphere that produced the new results.

Officers recorded the ship’s position at noon each day using a sextant. They would also note when they passed recognizable features, allowing researchers today to fully reconstruct the ship’s route to locate it in space and time.

While the historic sea ice observations have not yet been incorporated directly into the ice model, spot checks between the model and the early observations confirm the validity of the tool.

“This is independent verification that the model is doing the right thing,” Schweiger said.

The new, longer record provides more context for big storms or other unusual events and a new way to study the Arctic Ocean sea ice system.

“The observations that we have for sea ice thickness and variability are so limited,” Schweiger said. “I think people will start analyzing this record. There’s a host of questions that people can ask to help understand Arctic sea ice and predict is future.”

The PIOMAS tool is widely used by scientists to monitor the of Arctic sea ice. The area of Arctic sea ice over the month of June 2019, and the PIOMAS-calculated volume, were the second-lowest for that time of year since the satellite record began.

The lowest-ever recorded Arctic sea ice area and volume occurred in September 2012. And while Schweiger believes the long-term trend will be downward, he’s not placing bets on this year setting a new record.

“The state of the sea ice right now is set up for new lows, but whether it will happen or not depends on the weather over the next two months,” Schweiger said.

The other co-author is at the UW Applied Physics Laboratory. The research was funded by the National Science Foundation, NASA, and the North Pacific Research Board.

For more information, contact Schweiger at schweig@uw.edu or 206-543-1312 and Wood at krwood@uw.edu 206-526-6862.

After many people in the Puget Sound region had dismissed any chance of snowfall in the lowlands this season, the region is now on track for not one, but two, and possibly even more snowstorms this winter.

, a 天美影视传媒 associate professor of atmospheric sciences who serves as , commented Thursday on the upcoming snowstorm 鈥� the second to hit the Puget Sound region this week.

The UW campus will suspend operations, including canceling classes, starting Friday midday, and updates are posted to the UW homepage and to the blog. Sign up for email and text alerts here.

It’s not a coincidence that we’re getting even more snow 鈥� the situation on the ground matters for the coming snowstorm, Bond said. Because the ground is already cold, that will chill the air enough that this storm will likely bring snow from the start, instead of rain followed by snow. Also, this cold spell means that snow will likely last on the ground longer.

“It is a very unusual situation we’re in, which is sustained cold weather,” Bond said. “Oftentimes, the atmospheric circulation patterns get into a state that’s favorable for snow, but because it’s a rare event, it just doesn’t hang around that long. Then we get back to more air coming off the Pacific Ocean that’s relatively mild, and a return to more normal temperatures.

“But in this particular case, we’ve just kind of gotten locked into a pattern where we’re going to continue to get colder air from the north, along with that special set of circumstances in which we can get the lift, the precipitation, and the snow to fall. It doesn’t happen very often 鈥� maybe every decade, or even two, that you have something like this. So it’s quite remarkable.”

Bond defers to the National Weather Service for exact predictions, and notes that the exact timing and location of the heaviest snowfall is hard to predict. But he expects it to be a more unusual event in the lowlands than at higher elevations.

“These patterns aren’t really huge snow producers for the mountains,” Bond said. “They don’t produce a great deal of total precipitation, so it’s not the most favorable for really piling up snow in the mountains. But they will get some, and our snow pack right now is a little below normal. We’re not panicking, but there is some concern about water supply next summer. So hopefully they’ll get some, too.”

Bond is a member of the , a collaborative research center between the UW and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The air that is hitting us is not the same mass of cold air that hit the Midwest a few weeks ago, but the two events are somewhat related, Bond said.

“If you were to track the wind patterns, and ridges of higher pressure and troughs of lower pressure, sometimes the overall pattern around the whole Northern Hemisphere will be more circular 鈥� very symmetric,” Bond said. “Other times, it has these big ridges and big troughs, so there are places with strong north winds and strong south winds. So we’ve been in one of those kind of wavier patterns.”

One common question in the media is whether the “polar vortex” might be destabilized, sending more Arctic air into the mid-latitudes under global warming. Bond said that with a short record and evidence on both sides, the jury “hasn’t even been called yet” to establish if that connection exists.

As for whether this cold snap disproves global warming, Bond said the answer is clearly no.

“This is weather, not global warming. 2018 was by most measures the fourth-warmest year on record. But these sort of cold-weather events will still happen.”

And the cold seems likely to stick around.

“Right now, it looks like it’s going to stay cold for an extended period 鈥� at least another week or so, maybe a little bit longer,” Bond said. “It won’t necessarily be bitterly cold, but below-normal temperatures. The crystal ball starts to get really fuzzy when you start to look longer than a week or so, and it doesn’t really imply anything for the spring.”

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For more information, contact Bond at nab3met@uw.edu

A new study has found that a pattern of ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation has offset most of the impact of global warming on mountain snowpack in the western U.S. since the 1980s.

The from Oregon State University, the 天美影视传媒 and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory was published Jan. 11 in Geophysical Research Letters.

“The western U.S. has received a big assist from natural variability over the past 35 years,” said lead author at Oregon State University, who began thinking about the project as a doctoral student in atmospheric sciences at the UW. “That’s been great for us so far, but it’s bad news for the future.”

Western snowpack brings white-capped mountaintops and happy skiers, but it also plays a crucial role in our water supplies by storing freshwater as snow that will melt in the drier summer months in places like Washington, Oregon and California.

The research was prompted by conversations that began at the UW.

“There were a lot of discussions within the department of the surprising stability of the western U.S. snowpack, because it went against the predictions,” said co-author , a postdoctoral researcher at the UW’s Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean.

The authors used snow measurements that began in 1983 at 329 automated stations across the central and western United States, mostly at high-elevation sites. During the subsequent 35-year observational period, only four sites experienced a statistically significant decline in April 1 snowpack, while the others showed no significant trend.

The authors compared the snow measurements with oceanic and atmospheric climate data to see which most affected the snow accumulation. They then used a climate model for the whole 35-year observation period to determine what was affecting the overall trend. Results show that without the contribution from natural variability in the nearby Pacific Ocean, the western U.S. would have experienced a much larger decline in winter snowpack, especially in the Cascades and Sierra Nevada, due to an average winter warming of about 1 degree Celsius over the western U.S.

In Washington’s portion of the Cascade Range, for example, the authors found that rising temperatures due to human emissions would, on their own, have caused average snowpack on April 1 to decline by about 23 percent since the early 1980s, with a range of 2 to 44 percent decrease. However, this was offset by an increase in snowpack resulting from natural variability. The two factors together explain why snowpack has not declined significantly over the past 35 winters.

The natural variability is an atmospheric circulation pattern associated with stronger winds that bring more moisture from the Pacific Ocean. The pattern is driven by natural, long-term variations in Pacific Ocean temperatures. The northeast Pacific has not warmed as much as the land in recent decades, and stronger westerly winds have thus delivered more moisture to the coastal mountain ranges.

“One of the more important broader questions in climate science right now is: What is the Pacific Ocean doing, and why is it doing it? The top-level story is that the northeast Pacific hasn’t really exhibited a lot of warming,” Proistosescu said.

By contrast, during the 2015 year of “,” when the northeast Pacific had unusually warm surface temperatures, the West saw markedly less snow. This, the authors say, may be what the future looks like.

Siler said he expects a different scenario to play out over the next few decades, as the current phase of natural variability subsides, likely giving way to a circulation pattern that is less favorable for snowpack accumulation. The northeastern Pacific is likely to warm eventually, portending an accelerated decline in winter mountain snowpack over the next few decades.

“Natural variability has masked the impact of global warming on snowpack for as long as I’ve been alive,鈥� said Siler, who was born in 1983. “But in the next few decades, I think we’re more likely to see natural variability amplify, rather than offset, the loss of snowpack due to global warming.”

The other co-author is , a former UW graduate student who is now a research fellow at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in Berkeley.

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For more information, contact Proistosescu at cproist@uw.edu or Siler at 541-737-8633 and nick.siler@oregonstate.edu.

Portions of this post were adapted from an OSU .