, professor and interim dean of the Evans School of Public Policy & Governance at the ����Ӱ�Ӵ�ý, has received a $2 million grant from the National Science Foundation to study simultaneous “megafires” and the future management of wildfire risk.

Cullen will lead the project team, which includes researchers from the University of California, Merced and the National Center for Atmospheric Research, beginning this fall. The team is comprised of specialists in decision science, climate science, statistics and fire science, and will collaborate with tribal and government land-management agencies.

The project focuses on “megafires,” those that burn more than 100,000 acres and that, in the late summer of 2020, have wreaked havoc across the West. The simultaneous occurrence of such fires can strain firefighting resources and cause massive damage.

Cullen said her research will examine projections of future wildfire scenarios and the drivers of megafires, so as to inform future risk management planning.

“As Washington’s wildfire season has lengthened, with increasing numbers of simultaneous megafires, traditional regional sharing arrangements for firefighting resources are stretched to the breaking point,” Cullen said.  “Right now Washington is competing for scarce resources with Oregon and California, who are also experiencing surges. Prioritizing and implementing prescribed burns and other approaches to clearing built-up fuel has become increasingly urgent in order to reduce the risk to individuals, property and natural resources.”

The research team will focus on two questions: How will climate change alter future patterns of wildfire, particularly concurrent megafires? And what implications does climate change hold for risk management decisions?

The work is expected to inform future land use and management decisions as well as fire-suppression policies.

For more information, contact Cullen at alison@uw.edu.

Adapted from material from the Evans School of Public Policy & Governance.

Cullen currently holds the Daniel J. Evans Endowed Professorship of Public Policy and Governance and is a decorated scholar and long-serving faculty member.

“President Cauce and I are so grateful to Alison for bringing her leadership experience and commitment to excellent teaching and scholarship with impact to her leadership of the Evans School, and we appreciate the widespread and enthusiastic support for her appointment among our faculty colleagues,” Richards said.

Cullen has served the Evans School with distinction since she joined the faculty in 1995, including terms as associate dean and graduate program coordinator. She has published many scholarly works related to her research areas, which focus on environmental and human health policy, wildfire risk management and climate impacts. She also holds adjunct professor appointments in the School of Public Health and the College of the Environment.

She is the recipient of the Society for Risk Analysis Distinguished Educator Award, has twice received the Evans Student Organization Excellence in Instruction Award and also received the 2016 Evans School Dean’s Outstanding Teaching Award. Among her numerous awards and recognitions for scholarship, Cullen was an NSF Faculty Fellow in the Advanced Study Program at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, a visiting fellow at Boston’s Health Effects Institute and the recipient of the Society of Toxicology Award for a Publication Demonstrating Applied Risk Assessment. She is active in risk assessment and management efforts in the U.S. and internationally, including serving on the Science Advisory Board of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and conducting wildfire risk management research with the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

“I am excited to work with students, staff, faculty and community stakeholders during this transition year at the Evans School, in a critical period for scholarship and action in the public and nonprofit sectors. The Evans School has a proud history of excellence in providing evidence-based solutions to societal challenges, and an inspiring future rising from a passionate call for justice, equity and inclusion in public policy and governance,” Cullen said.

Cullen received her bachelor’s in civil/environmental engineering from MIT and holds both a masters of science in environmental health science, exposure assessment and engineering and a doctor of science in environmental health management from Harvard University School of Public Health, where she also previously served on the faculty.

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They also suggest: Ramp up the ferries’ social media presence and other public engagement efforts, use tolling technology and expand mobile transactions to improve ticketing and loading processes.

The 2018 Washington State Legislature commissioned two faculty members with the to conduct an independent study of ticketing and loading procedures at the popular ferry dock and suggest ways to improve terminal operations.

Evans School professor is principal investigator for the study, working with associate professor and four graduate student research assistants. The team sent its completed study to the Washington State Department of Transportation on Dec. 14, outlining short- and longer-term options for improving service at the terminal.

The , on what is called the Triangle Route, is where travelers and commuters take ferries from West Seattle to both Vashon Island and the small Kitsap Peninsula town of . The Fauntleroy dock, one of the state’s oldest and smallest in operation, is too small to hold enough vehicles to fill even the smallest of three ferries that currently serve the route, so additional cars wait for ferries in a holding lane that runs north up Fauntleroy Way.

The terminal has been the cause of substantial commuter frustrations in recent years, with some sailings grappling with a trade-off between being on time and filling boats.

While the dock is scheduled for a rebuild starting in 2025, ferry riders and community members see the status quo as “undesirable and unsustainable” in the short run, the team writes.

In conducting their research, the Evans School team visited the docks and interviewed ferry staff and community members, and attended meetings of the Washington State Ferries’ on updating service at the terminal.

“Combining systematic analysis of available empirical data with field observations and interviews, (this) report examines the challenges and possibilities for improving ticketing and loading at Fauntleroy in the short run, while suggesting implications for long-run improvements as well,” they write. But they caution, “Easy fixes … are elusive.”

Their report recommends improvements in technology, training, public engagement and data collection and analysis, while stressing that “successful and sustainable” change will require both additional resources and planning.

In the near term: The team recommends that the Legislature provide Washington State Ferries sufficient funding to “experiment with combinations of additional staff, upgrades to Wi-Fi connectivity and mobile devices to enable ticket sales and validation in the holding lane.”

Other recommendations include creating a smartphone app commuters could use to get real-time estimates of wait times for ferries. Ferry users currently can sign up for text or email notifications of estimated wait times, but, the research team notes, such estimates are often inaccurate.

“A location-driven smartphone could estimate wait times before a rider leaves her house, while she is en route to a ferry terminal, and once she is in the holding lane,” the researchers write. The app could be built to integrate with Google Maps and other travel-planning apps, “enabling riders to plan their entire trips using a single app.”

To support implementing these suggestions, the team also recommends sufficient state funding for:

• Improvements in staff training, management and retention at Fauntleroy — including the hiring of several new staff before the next busy summer ferry season, and training staff in conflict de-escalation techniques
• Expansion of data collection and analysis to measure the impact of ticketing and loading changes to the dock and improve the quality of information that Washington State Ferries reports to the public.

Longer-term recommendations: The team suggests that the Legislature provide funding sufficient to rebuild the Fauntleroy dock, in its planned upgrade, with the capacity to incorporate WSDOT’s “Good to Go!” tolling technology to collect fares. They recommend that the support this change by factoring “Good to Go!” fare-collection capabilities into an upcoming fare-restructuring effort.

In their conclusion, the Evans School researchers state: “Despite differences of perspective and opinions among stakeholders, everyone we spoke with is dedicated to improving operations at Fauntleroy, as well as the Triangle Route more generally.

“We hope that these overall shared aims, in combination with our findings and recommendations, can help unify the Triangle Route’s stakeholders to support Washington State Ferries staff and the Legislature in developing sustainable solutions to the challenges of ticketing and loading at Fauntleroy.”The research was funded through the state supplemental transportation budget.

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For more information, contact Cullen at alison@uw.edu or Page at sbp@uw.edu.

Evans School professor and associate professor will lead the study, which begins this week and is expected to conclude in December. The work is being funded by $75,000 from the state supplemental transportation budget. Cullen is principal investigator for the project.

Assisting Cullen and Page will be Zane Gustafson, Zachary Kearl and Emily Scott, students in the Evans School’s .

The popular Fauntleroy Dock is where travelers and commuters take ferries on along a triangular route from Seattle to and the small town of . The dock has been the cause of commuter frustrations in recent years, with some ferries departing on time but not entirely full, while cars wait in line.

“We’ve been asked to analyze and compare alternative approaches to improve ticketing and loading procedures at the Fauntleroy ferry dock in West Seattle, given the constraints of the current dock and the characteristics of its location,” Cullen and Page said in an email.

For the study, the team plans to conduct site visits to the docks and interview Washington State Ferries staff members as well as community members. They will also sit in on meetings of the Washington State Ferries’ on improving service in “the triangle.”

The researchers will analyze data for a range of conditions, the faculty members say, and where feasible “identify alternative approaches to customer demand, waiting times, ticketing methods, fare structures and collection, loading and safety provisions, community engagement, customer satisfaction, and routes.”

When the study is complete, the team will offer its recommendations to Washington State Ferries.

“If our analysis uncovers barriers posed by policies,” they add, “we will consider possibilities for improvement as possible within our scope.”

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For more information, contact Cullen at 206-616-1654 or alison@uw.edu.